Real Betis 2-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Real Betis at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Real Betis vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Real Betis welcome Valladolid to Estadio Benito Villamarín. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Real Betis have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Benito Villamarín this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valladolid stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valladolid have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Real Betis at 1.40 PPG versus Valladolid's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Real Betis have won 0, Valladolid 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Real Betis trading profile (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Valladolid trading profile (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 48% versus Valladolid 24%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 52% | Valladolid 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.76 xG and Valladolid 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.093 / defence 1.277 | Valladolid attack 0.710 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.334 / away 0.978. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.210 — this is suppressing Real Betis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 59 Real Betis games / 21 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 58% | Draw 23% | Valladolid 19%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | Valladolid 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 60% | Valladolid 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 58% | Draw 23% | Valladolid 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 49% | xG Real Betis 1.76 / Valladolid 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.093 / def 1.277 | Valladolid attack 0.710 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.334 / away 0.978 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Valladolid xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Valladolid kick off?
Real Betis vs Valladolid kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Valladolid?
Real Betis 2 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Real Betis vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Valladolid part of?
Real Betis vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 58% chance of winning, Valladolid a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Real Betis and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Valladolid?
Record (1 meetings): Real Betis 0W | Draws 1 | Valladolid 0W.
What form are Real Betis and Valladolid in?
Real Betis (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Valladolid (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Real Betis's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.30
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.65
0.89
Valladolid xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
31.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.89 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Betis's recent record stands at 10W 4D 7L from 21 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 7W 3D 11L across 21 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Betis by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Valladolid heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Real Betis have managed 5W 2D 3L from 10 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valladolid's away record stands at 2W 1D 7L across 10 trips, a 0.70 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.14 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Real Betis are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.71 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid in 24%.
Defensively: Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 10W 4D 7L in their last 21 games (1.62 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Valladolid away?
Real Betis's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.70 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Valladolid in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Betis and Valladolid runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Apr 2025, when Real Betis won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Real Betis's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Real Betis
1
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 2, Valladolid have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2025, when Real Betis 5-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Valladolid?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 60%, Valladolid 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Real Betis) and 50% (Valladolid). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Valladolid in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Real Betis's recent matches and 30% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Real Betis's matches and 50% of Valladolid's.
Do Real Betis and Valladolid tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Real Betis edge out Valladolid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.76 xG and Valladolid 0.89 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.09 / defence 1.28 against Valladolid attack 0.71 / defence 1.21, drawn from 59/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 58% | Draw 23% | Valladolid 19%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 52%, Valladolid 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Valladolid's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.14. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.