Real Betis 1-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Real Betis at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Betis vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Sevilla travel to Estadio Benito Villamarín to take on Real Betis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 November 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Real Betis stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Betis's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Benito Villamarín this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sevilla — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Real Betis are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Real Betis, 2 for Sevilla and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Feb 2022, ended 1–2 with Sevilla winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Real Betis trading profile (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Sevilla trading profile (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 46% versus Sevilla 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 52% | Sevilla 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.60 xG and Sevilla 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 1.149 / defence 0.914 | Sevilla attack 1.047 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.138. Data: 50 Real Betis games / 50 Sevilla games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 49% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 26%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Sevilla 3.85. Real Betis hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Real Betis as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Betis offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Real Betis 50% | Sevilla 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Estadio Benito Villamarín • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 49% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Real Betis 1.60 / Sevilla 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 1.149 / def 0.914 | Sevilla attack 1.047 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.138 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Sevilla xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Sevilla kick off?
Real Betis vs Sevilla kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Sevilla?
Real Betis 1 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Real Betis vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Benito Villamarín.
What competition is Real Betis vs Sevilla part of?
Real Betis vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 49% chance of winning, Sevilla a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Real Betis and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Sevilla?
Record (2 meetings): Real Betis 0W | Draws 0 | Sevilla 2W.
What form are Real Betis and Sevilla in?
Real Betis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-D-L-W. Sevilla (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Real Betis's attack at 1.15x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Real Betis's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.01
26%
3.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.69
1.09
Sevilla xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.86
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.97
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
17%
6.04
5%
19.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.4 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Real Betis and 1.09 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Real Betis come into this having played 50 games, going 26W 10D 14L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sevilla sit at 1.60 PPG from 50 outings (20W 20D 10L), a run that reads D-W-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Real Betis on 1.76 PPG, Sevilla on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Real Betis's home form reads 15W 2D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Sevilla have taken 1.40 points per game from 25 outings (8W 11D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Real Betis are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.28 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sevilla in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Blended
Sevilla
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 26W 10D 14L in their last 50 games (1.76 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 20W 20D 10L in their last 50 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Sevilla away?
Real Betis's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 1.88 PPG; Sevilla away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Sevilla been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sevilla in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Real Betis and Sevilla runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Real Betis's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Real Betis
5
Draws
3
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Sevilla?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 2, Sevilla have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Real Betis 2-2 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Sevilla see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 48%, Sevilla 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Real Betis) and 24% (Sevilla).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sevilla in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Sevilla?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Real Betis's recent matches and 56% of Sevilla's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Real Betis's recent games and 24% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Sevilla tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis and Sevilla share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Benito Villamarín, Regular Season - 13, as Real Betis and Sevilla drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.60 xG and Sevilla 1.09 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 1.15 / defence 0.91 against Sevilla attack 1.05 / defence 1.02, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 49% | Draw 25% | Sevilla 26%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 52%, Sevilla 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sevilla's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Real Betis 1.76 PPG, Sevilla 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Real Betis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.