Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Betis (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Real Betis face Osasuna.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Betis and Osasuna meet at Estadio de La Cartuja in La Liga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Real Betis (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Real Betis have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Real Betis's home record at Estadio de La Cartuja: 6W 4D 0L from 10 La Liga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de La Cartuja.
Osasuna have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Real Betis. A 1.40 PPG lead over Osasuna (2.20 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Real Betis have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins from 9 meetings, with Osasuna managing just 1 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Real Betis and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Real Betis — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Osasuna — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Real Betis 64% versus Osasuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Real Betis 49% | Osasuna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Betis 1.92 xG and Osasuna 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Betis attack 0.889 / defence 0.687 | Osasuna attack 0.975 / defence 1.345. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.231. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.345 — this is suppressing Real Betis's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Real Betis's defence rating of 0.687 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Real Betis games / 45 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Betis 62% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 15%. Fair-value odds: Real Betis 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Osasuna 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Real Betis (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Betis at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Real Betis 50% | Osasuna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Betis vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio de La Cartuja • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Betis 62% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Real Betis 1.92 / Osasuna 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Real Betis attack 0.889 / def 0.687 | Osasuna attack 0.975 / def 1.345 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Real Betis (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Real Betis xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Osasuna xG
49%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Betis vs Osasuna kick off?
Real Betis vs Osasuna kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Estadio de La Cartuja.
What was the final score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Real Betis 5 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Real Betis vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de La Cartuja.
What competition is Real Betis vs Osasuna part of?
Real Betis vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Real Betis a 62% chance of winning, Osasuna a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Real Betis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Real Betis and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Real Betis vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Record (9 meetings): Real Betis 6W | Draws 2 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in?
Real Betis (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Real Betis's attack rating (0.89) and Osasuna's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.97x) against Real Betis's defence (0.69x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Betis Win
62%
1.60
23%
4.35
15%
6.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Real Betis xG
Total xG
2.74
0.82
Osasuna xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
6.80
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
15%
6.80
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
2%
46.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 10.2 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Real Betis and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Real Betis and 0.82 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Betis vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Real Betis come into this having played 45 games, going 20W 16D 9L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Real Betis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.11 PPG from 45 outings (13W 11D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Real Betis carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Osasuna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Real Betis's home form reads 13W 6D 3L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.59 points per game from 22 outings (3W 4D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Betis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Real Betis are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.11 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Betis have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Betis
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Betis and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Real Betis have gone 20W 16D 9L in their last 45 games (1.69 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Betis at home or Osasuna away?
Real Betis's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Betis at home: 2.05 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.59 PPG.
Have Real Betis or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Real Betis have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Osasuna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Betis won 4-1 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Betis have gone 5W 1D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Real Betis
2
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Betis and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Real Betis have won 7, Osasuna have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Real Betis and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Real Betis 5-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Real Betis and Osasuna?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Real Betis 50%, Osasuna 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Real Betis) and 46% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Real Betis keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Osasuna in 59%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Betis home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Betis play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Real Betis's recent matches and 41% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Real Betis vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Real Betis's recent games and 46% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Real Betis and Osasuna tend to score early?
Real Betis have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Real Betis run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Osasuna 5-2 at Estadio de La Cartuja, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Betis 1.92 xG and Osasuna 0.82 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Real Betis beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Osasuna outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Betis attack 0.89 / defence 0.69 against Osasuna attack 0.97 / defence 1.34, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Betis 62% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 15%, with Real Betis to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Betis 49%, Osasuna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Betis's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.