Rayo Vallecano 4-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Rayo Vallecano take on Granada CF.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio de Vallecas to take on Rayo Vallecano. The game is scheduled for Sunday 29 August 2021, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 0W 0D 2L from 2 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 0W 2D 0L from 2 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Granada CF have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Granada CF are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rayo Vallecano 0.75 xG and Granada CF 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.965 / defence 1.150 | Granada CF attack 0.743 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 0.752 / away 0.783. Data: 2 Rayo Vallecano games / 2 Granada CF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 31% | Draw 43% | Granada CF 26%. Fair-value odds: Rayo Vallecano 3.23 | Draw 2.33 | Granada CF 3.85. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.42. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.42 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — Granada CF's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.42 combined xG gives a 17% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio de Vallecas • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rayo Vallecano 31% | Draw 43% | Granada CF 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 28% | xG Rayo Vallecano 0.75 / Granada CF 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Rayo Vallecano attack 0.965 / def 1.150 | Granada CF attack 0.743 / def 1.036 | league avg home 0.752 / away 0.783 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Rayo Vallecano xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Granada CF xG
28%
BTTS
44%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF kick off?
Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Estadio de Vallecas.
What was the final score in Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Rayo Vallecano 4 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Vallecas.
What competition is Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF part of?
Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Rayo Vallecano a 31% chance of winning, Granada CF a 26% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF in?
Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L. Granada CF (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Rayo Vallecano's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Granada CF's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Rayo Vallecano's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 25.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.6%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.22
43%
2.34
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
18.1%
Home win
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Rayo Vallecano xG
Total xG
1.42
0.67
Granada CF xG
3.22
31%
Home win
2.34
43%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.54
72%
BTTS No
1.39
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
16%
6.29
12%
8.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.1 | 16.2 | 5.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.1 | 12.2 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.7%.
How many goals are Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Rayo Vallecano and 0.67 for Granada CF, a combined total of 1.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 2 outings, Rayo Vallecano have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Granada CF's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Granada CF, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Granada CF are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rayo Vallecano.
Goals in Recent Form
Rayo Vallecano are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 0.50 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rayo Vallecano have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games.
Defensively: Granada CF in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
Granada CF
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Rayo Vallecano have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Rayo Vallecano or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rayo Vallecano have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Granada CF in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Rayo Vallecano have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2021, when Rayo Vallecano won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rayo Vallecano's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Rayo Vallecano
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 15 May 2024, when Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Rayo Vallecano and Granada CF?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rayo Vallecano home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rayo Vallecano play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Rayo Vallecano's recent matches and 50% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rayo Vallecano vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Rayo Vallecano's recent games and 0% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Rayo Vallecano run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Granada CF 4-0 at Estadio de Vallecas, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rayo Vallecano 0.75 xG and Granada CF 0.67 xG, a combined 1.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rayo Vallecano attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Granada CF attack 0.74 / defence 1.04, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Rayo Vallecano 31% | Draw 43% | Granada CF 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rayo Vallecano 50%, Granada CF 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Granada CF arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Rayo Vallecano winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rayo Vallecano scored 4 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF shipped 4 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.