Osasuna 0-3 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio El Sadar plays host to Osasuna versus Villarreal in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Sunday 19 March 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Current Form
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna at Estadio El Sadar this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Villarreal have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Osasuna, 1.40 for Villarreal — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Osasuna have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Villarreal in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Osasuna 2W, Villarreal 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2022, ended 0–2 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Osasuna half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 41% versus Villarreal 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 32% | Villarreal 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.06 xG and Villarreal 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.731 / defence 0.948 | Villarreal attack 1.077 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 0.990. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Osasuna games / 63 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 34%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.78 | Draw 3.33 | Villarreal 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Osasuna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 30% | Villarreal 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Mar 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Osasuna 1.06 / Villarreal 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.731 / def 0.948 | Villarreal attack 1.077 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.350 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Villarreal xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Villarreal kick off?
Osasuna vs Villarreal kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 19 March 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Osasuna 0 - 3 Villarreal.
Where is Osasuna vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Villarreal part of?
Osasuna vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 36% chance of winning, Villarreal a 34% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Osasuna and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Record (3 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Villarreal 1W.
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in?
Osasuna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Villarreal (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 0.73x the league average against Villarreal's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Villarreal's attack (1.08x) against Osasuna's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
36%
2.76
30%
3.31
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.07
1.01
Villarreal xG
2.76
36%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
12%
8.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.01 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Osasuna's recent record stands at 21W 18D 24L from 63 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal, meanwhile, have gone 27W 16D 20L across 63 games — 1.54 PPG, with L-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Osasuna against 1.54 for Villarreal. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 11W 8D 12L from 31 games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Villarreal's away record stands at 10W 7D 14L across 31 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Osasuna are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.46 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 21W 18D 24L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 27W 16D 20L in their last 63 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Villarreal away?
Osasuna's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.32 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Villarreal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Villarreal in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Osasuna have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Villarreal — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Osasuna
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 42%, Villarreal 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Osasuna) and 36% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Villarreal in 32%; Osasuna have failed to score in 32% of games; Villarreal in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Osasuna's recent matches and 36% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Osasuna's recent games and 36% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Osasuna 0-3 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.06 xG and Villarreal 1.01 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Villarreal outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.73 / defence 0.95 against Villarreal attack 1.08 / defence 1.08, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 36% | Draw 30% | Villarreal 34%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Villarreal win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 32%, Villarreal 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Villarreal's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.29 PPG, Villarreal 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Villarreal (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.