Osasuna 1-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Real Sociedad (45%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Osasuna face Real Sociedad.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Osasuna welcome Real Sociedad to Estadio El Sadar in La Liga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 2 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Osasuna have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: W L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Osasuna are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Real Sociedad stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Real Sociedad have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Real Sociedad are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Real Sociedad have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Osasuna.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2023, ended Osasuna 0–2 Real Sociedad — a Real Sociedad win.
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 4 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Real Sociedad trading profile (last 52 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Real Sociedad 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 40% | Real Sociedad 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.11 xG and Real Sociedad 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.836 / defence 1.145 | Real Sociedad attack 1.116 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.514 / away 1.174. Data: built from Osasuna's last 52 games and Real Sociedad's last 52.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 26% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 45%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 3.79 | Draw 3.46 | Real Sociedad 2.24. Real Sociedad hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Sociedad at 45% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Real Sociedad offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Osasuna 50% (last 10 home games) | Real Sociedad 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, matchday 15 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 2 December 2023 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 26% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Osasuna 1.11 / Real Sociedad 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.836 / def 1.145 | Real Sociedad attack 1.116 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.514 / away 1.174 • Poisson stance: Real Sociedad (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Real Sociedad xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Sociedad FAQs
What time does Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Osasuna 1 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Real Sociedad part of?
Osasuna vs Real Sociedad is a La Liga fixture (matchday 15) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 26% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Real Sociedad the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Osasuna and Real Sociedad will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Osasuna vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.84) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Real Sociedad's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Osasuna's last 52 games and Real Sociedad's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Sociedad Win
26%
3.79
29%
3.46
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.61
1.50
Real Sociedad xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
6%
16.98
15%
6.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 11.0 | 8.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Osasuna vs Real Sociedad Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.50 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna's recent record stands at 19W 10D 23L from 52 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Real Sociedad, meanwhile, have gone 28W 12D 12L across 52 games — 1.85 PPG, with W-D-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Sociedad by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Osasuna heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 11W 3D 11L from their last 25 home games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Sociedad's away record stands at 12W 5D 8L across their last 25 away games, a 1.64 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
Osasuna (Home) vs Real Sociedad (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Osasuna
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Osasuna vs Real Sociedad Form FAQs
What form are Osasuna and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 10D 23L in their last 52 games (1.29 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 28W 12D 12L in their last 52 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.44 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.64 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 15 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Real Sociedad have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Osasuna's record when hosting Real Sociedad specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
1
Draws
6
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Osasuna vs Real Sociedad H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Osasuna have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Real Sociedad last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2026: Real Sociedad 3-1 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 40%, Real Sociedad 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Osasuna) and 44% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Real Sociedad in 36%; Osasuna have failed to score in 36% of games; Real Sociedad in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Osasuna vs Real Sociedad Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Osasuna and Real Sociedad matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Osasuna's recent matches and 48% of Real Sociedad's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Osasuna and Real Sociedad matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Osasuna's recent games and 44% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Real Sociedad matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Osasuna's recent matches and 76% of Real Sociedad's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna and Real Sociedad share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 15, as Osasuna and Real Sociedad drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.11 xG and Real Sociedad 1.50 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Real Sociedad attack 1.12 / defence 0.88, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 26% | Draw 29% | Real Sociedad 45%, with Real Sociedad to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 40%, Real Sociedad 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Sociedad arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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