Osasuna 1-3 Real Madrid – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Real Madrid at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Osasuna vs Real Madrid encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Osasuna and Real Madrid meet at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 20:30 UTC.

Form

Osasuna (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Osasuna's home record at Estadio El Sadar: 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Real Madrid's overall La Liga record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Real Madrid's away record: 8W 1D 1L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Real Madrid are 0.90 PPG clear of Osasuna in recent La Liga fixtures (2.50 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Osasuna lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

Osasuna — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Real Madrid — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 38% versus Real Madrid 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 41% | Real Madrid 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.85 xG and Real Madrid 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.838 / defence 1.127 | Real Madrid attack 1.263 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.102. Real Madrid have an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — the away xG of 1.57 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 32 Osasuna games / 32 Real Madrid games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Osasuna 20% | Draw 25% | Real Madrid 54%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Real Madrid 1.85. Real Madrid hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Real Madrid are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Real Madrid if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Real Madrid 50% BTTS from recent games.

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