Osasuna 1-0 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Rayo Vallecano travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 2D 2L from 7 La Liga matches — 1.57 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 7 games (43%) reflects a solid defensive base. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 2L across 4 games at Estadio El Sadar this term (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio El Sadar. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.57 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio El Sadar this season.
Rayo Vallecano — All Games: 4W 1D 2L from 7 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.86 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.86 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rayo Vallecano have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.86 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.57 PPG (Osasuna) versus 1.86 (Rayo Vallecano). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 29% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 57%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano trading profile (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 57% versus Rayo Vallecano 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Osasuna 57% | Rayo Vallecano 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 0.91 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 0.712 / defence 1.443 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.819 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.058. Osasuna's attack strength of 0.712 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayo Vallecano bring a strong defensive rating of 1.243 — this is suppressing Osasuna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Osasuna games / 7 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 24% | Draw 34% | Rayo Vallecano 41%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 4.17 | Draw 2.94 | Rayo Vallecano 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Rayo Vallecano as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Osasuna 50% | Rayo Vallecano 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 24% | Draw 34% | Rayo Vallecano 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Osasuna 0.91 / Rayo Vallecano 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 0.712 / def 1.443 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.819 / def 1.243 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Rayo Vallecano xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna 1 - 0 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 24% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-1D-2L in 7 | 1.86 PPG | GF 1.86 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (0.71) and Rayo Vallecano's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Rayo Vallecano's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
24%
4.10
34%
2.93
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.16
1.25
Rayo Vallecano xG
4.10
24%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
7%
14.31
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 14.4 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.1 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.25 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 7 outings, Osasuna have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 3W 2D 2L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rayo Vallecano's form line: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games, 1.86 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Rayo Vallecano, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.57 PPG, Rayo Vallecano on 1.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Osasuna have posted 0.50 PPG from 4 outings (0W 2D 2L). That actually lags their 1.57 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Rayo Vallecano have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.86 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rayo Vallecano's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rayo Vallecano come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 1.86 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Rayo Vallecano
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 4W 1D 2L in their last 7 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Rayo Vallecano's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 0.50 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Rayo Vallecano been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Rayo Vallecano in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Feb 2022, when Osasuna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Osasuna's record when hosting Rayo Vallecano specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Osasuna
1
Draws
3
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 6, Rayo Vallecano have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-3 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Rayo Vallecano are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 50%, Rayo Vallecano 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Osasuna) and 50% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Osasuna have failed to score in 50% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Osasuna's recent matches and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Osasuna's recent games and 50% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Rayo Vallecano 1-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 0.91 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.25 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Rayo Vallecano landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 0.71 / defence 1.44 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.82 / defence 1.24, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 24% | Draw 34% | Rayo Vallecano 41%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Osasuna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 57%, Rayo Vallecano 71%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (7 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (7 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.57 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.