Osasuna 1-2 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Getafe (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Osasuna face Getafe.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Osasuna host Getafe at Estadio El Sadar in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Estadio El Sadar, Osasuna have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Getafe — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Getafe have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Getafe's 1.70 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Osasuna's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Osasuna, 3 for Getafe and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Osasuna trading profile (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Getafe trading profile (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 56% versus Getafe 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 44% | Getafe 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.21 xG and Getafe 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.119 / defence 1.223 | Getafe attack 0.933 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.132. Getafe's defence strength of 0.763 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Osasuna games / 65 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Getafe 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Getafe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 90% | Getafe 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Osasuna 1.21 / Getafe 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.119 / def 1.223 | Getafe attack 0.933 / def 0.763 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Getafe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Getafe xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Getafe kick off?
Osasuna vs Getafe kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Osasuna 1 - 2 Getafe.
Where is Osasuna vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Getafe part of?
Osasuna vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 35% chance of winning, Getafe a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Osasuna and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
Record (6 meetings): Osasuna 1W | Draws 2 | Getafe 3W.
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in?
Osasuna (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Getafe (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Osasuna's attack at 1.12x the league average against Getafe's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
35%
2.89
27%
3.71
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.50
1.29
Getafe xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.29 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Osasuna's recent record stands at 19W 21D 24L from 64 games, a 1.22 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 18W 21D 25L across 64 games — 1.17 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.22 PPG, Getafe on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Osasuna have managed 12W 11D 9L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 6W 10D 16L across 32 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Osasuna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Osasuna are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 1.02 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 64 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Getafe in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 19W 21D 24L in their last 64 games (1.22 PPG), while Getafe have gone 18W 21D 25L in their last 64 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Getafe away?
Osasuna's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.47 PPG; Getafe away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Osasuna's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 3W 1D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Osasuna
2
Draws
5
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Getafe?
From 10 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 3, Getafe have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Osasuna 1-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 62%, Getafe 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Osasuna) and 44% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Getafe in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Osasuna's recent matches and 47% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Osasuna's recent games and 44% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Getafe tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Getafe in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Getafe edge out Osasuna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Osasuna 1-2 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 28, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.21 xG and Getafe 1.29 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.12 / defence 1.22 against Getafe attack 0.93 / defence 0.76, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 35% | Draw 27% | Getafe 38%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 44%, Getafe 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.22 PPG, Getafe 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.