Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Osasuna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Osasuna vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Cadiz travel to Estadio El Sadar to take on Osasuna. The game is scheduled for Saturday 20 August 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Osasuna have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Osasuna have posted 5W 2D 3L at Estadio El Sadar — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Osasuna are significantly better at Estadio El Sadar than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cadiz stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Cadiz have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cadiz's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Osasuna 1.20 PPG, Cadiz 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Osasuna, 0 for Cadiz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2022, ended 2–0 with Osasuna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Osasuna in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cadiz in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Osasuna 44% versus Cadiz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Osasuna 38% | Cadiz 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Osasuna 1.23 xG and Cadiz 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Osasuna attack 1.038 / defence 1.038 | Cadiz attack 0.910 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.131. Data: 39 Osasuna games / 39 Cadiz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 30%. Fair-value odds: Osasuna 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Cadiz 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Osasuna at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Osasuna 40% | Cadiz 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Osasuna vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Estadio El Sadar • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Osasuna 38% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Osasuna 1.23 / Cadiz 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Osasuna attack 1.038 / def 1.038 | Cadiz attack 0.910 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Osasuna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Osasuna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cadiz xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Osasuna vs Cadiz kick off?
Osasuna vs Cadiz kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Estadio El Sadar.
What was the final score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Osasuna 2 - 0 Cadiz.
Where is Osasuna vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Estadio El Sadar.
What competition is Osasuna vs Cadiz part of?
Osasuna vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Osasuna a 38% chance of winning, Cadiz a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Osasuna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Osasuna and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Osasuna vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Record (2 meetings): Osasuna 2W | Draws 0 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Osasuna and Cadiz in?
Osasuna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Cadiz (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Osasuna's attack rating (1.04) and Cadiz's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cadiz's attack versus Osasuna's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Osasuna Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.17
30%
3.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Osasuna xG
Total xG
2.30
1.07
Cadiz xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.31
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
9%
11.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Osasuna and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Osasuna and 1.07 for Cadiz, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Osasuna vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Osasuna come into this having played 39 games, going 13W 11D 15L for 1.28 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cadiz sit at 1.00 PPG from 39 outings (8W 15D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cadiz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Osasuna on 1.28 PPG, Cadiz on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Osasuna's home form reads 6W 6D 7L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.26 PPG return.
Away from home, Cadiz have taken 1.11 points per game from 19 outings (5W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Osasuna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.90 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 39 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Osasuna
Early Season
Cadiz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Osasuna and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Osasuna have gone 13W 11D 15L in their last 39 games (1.28 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 8W 15D 16L in their last 39 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Osasuna at home or Cadiz away?
Osasuna's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Osasuna at home: 1.26 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Osasuna or Cadiz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Osasuna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Cadiz in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Osasuna and Cadiz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna's record when hosting Cadiz specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Osasuna
1
Draws
0
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Osasuna and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Osasuna have won 5, Cadiz have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Osasuna and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2024, when Osasuna 2-0 Cadiz.
Who has won more matches between Osasuna and Cadiz?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Osasuna 53%, Cadiz 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Osasuna) and 42% (Cadiz).
On the defensive side: Osasuna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cadiz in 37%; Osasuna have failed to score in 26% of games; Cadiz in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Osasuna home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Osasuna play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Osasuna's recent matches and 42% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Osasuna vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Osasuna's recent games and 42% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Osasuna and Cadiz tend to score early?
Osasuna have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Osasuna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Cadiz 2-0 at Estadio El Sadar, Regular Season - 2, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Osasuna 1.23 xG and Cadiz 1.07 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Osasuna attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Cadiz attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Osasuna 38% | Draw 32% | Cadiz 30%, with Osasuna to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Osasuna 38%, Cadiz 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Osasuna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cadiz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Osasuna 1.28 PPG, Cadiz 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.