Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 49%, yet in-form Real Sociedad provide a compelling counter-argument — this Mallorca vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix plays host to Mallorca versus Real Sociedad in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 28 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's home record at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix than their overall form suggests.
Real Sociedad's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Real Sociedad have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Real Sociedad are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Mallorca register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Real Sociedad in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Real Sociedad hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 9 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Real Sociedad winning.
It is worth noting that Real Sociedad have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Mallorca half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Real Sociedad half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 56% versus Real Sociedad 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mallorca 49% | Real Sociedad 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.86 xG and Real Sociedad 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.149 / defence 1.170 | Real Sociedad attack 1.015 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.534 / away 1.128. Data: 63 Mallorca games / 63 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 27%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Real Sociedad 3.70. Mallorca hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Real Sociedad (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 80% | Real Sociedad 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadi Mallorca Son Moix • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 49% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Mallorca 1.86 / Real Sociedad 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.149 / def 1.170 | Real Sociedad attack 1.015 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.534 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Real Sociedad xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Mallorca vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Mallorca 0 - 1 Real Sociedad.
Where is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix.
What competition is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad part of?
Mallorca vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 49% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Mallorca and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
Record (9 meetings): Mallorca 2W | Draws 1 | Real Sociedad 6W.
What form are Mallorca and Real Sociedad in?
Mallorca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.15) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (1.01x) against Mallorca's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
49%
2.06
25%
4.03
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Mallorca xG
Total xG
3.20
1.34
Real Sociedad xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
16%
6.44
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
4%
24.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.1 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Mallorca and 1.34 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca come into this having played 63 games, going 19W 15D 29L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.24 PPG from 63 outings (21W 15D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Mallorca against 1.24 for Real Sociedad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Mallorca's home form reads 12W 10D 9L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 0.97 points per game from 31 outings (7W 9D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.14 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 63 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 19W 15D 29L in their last 63 games (1.14 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 21W 15D 27L in their last 63 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Real Sociedad away?
Mallorca's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.48 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Real Sociedad go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mallorca
1
Draws
7
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Real Sociedad have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Mallorca 0-1 Real Sociedad.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 68%, Real Sociedad 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mallorca) and 42% (Real Sociedad).
On the defensive side: Real Sociedad in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Mallorca's games and 45% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Mallorca vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Mallorca's recent games and 42% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Sociedad defy the odds to beat Mallorca 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Sociedad beat Mallorca 0-1 at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.86 xG and Real Sociedad 1.34 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Mallorca fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.15 / defence 1.17 against Real Sociedad attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 49% | Draw 25% | Real Sociedad 27%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Real Sociedad win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 49%, Real Sociedad 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.14 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Sociedad win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.