Mallorca 1-0 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 44% as Mallorca take on Espanyol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Espanyol make the trip to Iberostar Estadi to face Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 2.00 PPG across 2 La Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 0L. Last five: D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Mallorca have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Espanyol's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Espanyol have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Mallorca. A 1.00 PPG lead over Espanyol (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 0.76 xG and Espanyol 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 1.004 / defence 1.171 | Espanyol attack 0.744 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 0.719 / away 0.866. Data: 2 Mallorca games / 2 Espanyol games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mallorca 28% | Draw 44% | Espanyol 28%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 3.57 | Draw 2.27 | Espanyol 3.57. The draw (44%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.51. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.51 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Espanyol's lower xG of 0.76 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 44% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 28% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 0.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Iberostar Estadi • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 28% | Draw 44% | Espanyol 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 32% | xG Mallorca 0.76 / Espanyol 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 1.004 / def 1.171 | Espanyol attack 0.744 / def 1.052 | league avg home 0.719 / away 0.866 • Poisson stance: Draw (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Espanyol xG
32%
BTTS
48%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Espanyol kick off?
Mallorca vs Espanyol kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Iberostar Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Mallorca 1 - 0 Espanyol.
Where is Mallorca vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Iberostar Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Espanyol part of?
Mallorca vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 28% chance of winning, Espanyol a 28% chance, and a 44% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Mallorca and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Espanyol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Espanyol in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-1D-0L in 2 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W. Espanyol (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (1.00) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.76 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Espanyol's attack (0.74x) against Mallorca's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 23.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (15.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.56
44%
2.27
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.51
0.76
Espanyol xG
3.56
28%
Home win
2.27
44%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
45%
Over 1.5
2.22
55%
Under 1.5
1.82
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.13
68%
BTTS No
1.47
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
47%
2.14
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.0 | 16.6 | 6.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.76 for Espanyol, a combined total of 1.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Mallorca have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 1W 1D 0L record — D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Mallorca, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Espanyol's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Espanyol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Mallorca are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Espanyol.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 0.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Espanyol in 0%.
Defensively: Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Espanyol in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Early Season
Espanyol
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 1W 1D 0L in their last 2 games (2.00 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
Have Mallorca or Espanyol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Espanyol in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Espanyol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Mallorca
1
Draws
4
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Espanyol?
From 8 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 3, Espanyol have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Mallorca 2-1 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Espanyol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mallorca's recent matches and 0% of Espanyol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Mallorca's recent games and 0% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Espanyol tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Espanyol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Espanyol 1-0 at Iberostar Estadi, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 0.76 xG and Espanyol 0.76 xG, a combined 1.51. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 1.00 / defence 1.17 against Espanyol attack 0.74 / defence 1.05, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 28% | Draw 44% | Espanyol 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 44%. The actual Mallorca win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 48% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 0%, Espanyol 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Mallorca arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Espanyol shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.