Mallorca 2-2 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Elche fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Elche travel to Visit Mallorca Estadi to take on Mallorca. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 November 2021, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Mallorca have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mallorca have posted 2W 3D 1L at Visit Mallorca Estadi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 6 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Elche — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Elche have gone 1W 0D 5L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mallorca 1.00 PPG, Elche 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Mallorca in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 42% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games).
Elche in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 50% versus Elche 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 25% | Elche 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.19 xG and Elche 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.852 / defence 1.096 | Elche attack 0.656 / defence 1.305. League average goals — home 1.071 / away 1.083. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.305 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Mallorca games / 12 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Elche 22%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.27 | Draw 2.94 | Elche 4.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mallorca are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mallorca offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 50% | Elche 33% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Nov 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Elche 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Mallorca 1.19 / Elche 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.852 / def 1.096 | Elche attack 0.656 / def 1.305 | league avg home 1.071 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Elche xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Elche kick off?
Mallorca vs Elche kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 7 November 2021 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Elche?
Mallorca 2 - 2 Elche.
Where is Mallorca vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Elche part of?
Mallorca vs Elche is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 44% chance of winning, Elche a 22% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mallorca and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Elche?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mallorca and Elche in?
Mallorca (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Elche (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.85) and Elche's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Elche's attack versus Mallorca's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
44%
2.28
34%
2.94
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.97
0.78
Elche xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.53
60%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
46%
2.18
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
20%
4.98
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 10.9 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.9 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.78 for Elche, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mallorca come into this having played 12 games, going 3W 5D 4L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Elche sit at 0.83 PPG from 12 outings (2W 4D 6L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mallorca on 1.17 PPG, Elche on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mallorca's home form reads 2W 3D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Elche have taken 0.50 points per game from 6 outings (1W 0D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mallorca come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mallorca are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 12 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Elche in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 3W 5D 4L in their last 12 games (1.17 PPG), while Elche have gone 2W 4D 6L in their last 12 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Elche away?
Mallorca's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.50 PPG; Elche away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Mallorca or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mallorca have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Elche in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Elche won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mallorca's record when hosting Elche specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Mallorca
2
Draws
3
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 1, Elche have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Elche 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Elche?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Elche see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 50%, Elche 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Mallorca and 33% for Elche.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Elche in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mallorca's recent matches and 33% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Mallorca's recent games and 33% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Elche tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Elche in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mallorca and Elche share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 13, as Mallorca and Elche drew 2-2 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.19 xG and Elche 0.78 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Elche outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Elche attack 0.66 / defence 1.30, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 44% | Draw 34% | Elche 22%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 25%, Elche 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Elche's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 1.17 PPG, Elche 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Elche (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.