Mallorca 2-1 Cadiz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mallorca at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mallorca vs Cadiz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cadiz make the trip to Visit Mallorca Estadi to face Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mallorca have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Visit Mallorca Estadi this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Visit Mallorca Estadi. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Mallorca are significantly better at Visit Mallorca Estadi than their overall form suggests.
Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Cadiz have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Mallorca, 0.90 for Cadiz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mallorca lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cadiz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mallorca 48% versus Cadiz 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mallorca 38% | Cadiz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mallorca 1.01 xG and Cadiz 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mallorca attack 0.711 / defence 1.016 | Cadiz attack 0.766 / defence 1.274. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.127. Mallorca's attack strength of 0.711 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cadiz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.274 — this is suppressing Mallorca's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Mallorca games / 22 Cadiz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mallorca 36% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 29%. Fair-value odds: Mallorca 2.78 | Draw 2.94 | Cadiz 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Mallorca as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mallorca if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mallorca 40% | Cadiz 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mallorca vs Cadiz | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Visit Mallorca Estadi • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mallorca 36% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Mallorca 1.01 / Cadiz 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Mallorca attack 0.711 / def 1.016 | Cadiz attack 0.766 / def 1.274 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Mallorca (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Mallorca xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Cadiz xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mallorca vs Cadiz kick off?
Mallorca vs Cadiz kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What was the final score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Mallorca 2 - 1 Cadiz.
Where is Mallorca vs Cadiz being played?
The match is being played at Visit Mallorca Estadi.
What competition is Mallorca vs Cadiz part of?
Mallorca vs Cadiz is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our statistical model gives Mallorca a 36% chance of winning, Cadiz a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Mallorca the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Mallorca and Cadiz will score (BTTS).
Will Mallorca vs Cadiz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Cadiz?
Record (1 meetings): Mallorca 0W | Draws 1 | Cadiz 0W.
What form are Mallorca and Cadiz in?
Mallorca (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Cadiz (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Mallorca's attack rating (0.71) and Cadiz's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cadiz's attack (0.77x) against Mallorca's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 21/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mallorca Win
36%
2.75
34%
2.93
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Mallorca xG
Total xG
1.88
0.88
Cadiz xG
2.75
36%
Home win
2.93
34%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
42%
2.40
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.4 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Mallorca and Cadiz expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Mallorca and 0.88 for Cadiz, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Mallorca vs Cadiz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mallorca's recent record stands at 4W 8D 9L from 21 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cadiz, meanwhile, have gone 3W 8D 10L across 21 games — 0.81 PPG, with D-L-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.95 PPG for Mallorca against 0.81 for Cadiz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Mallorca have managed 2W 6D 2L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cadiz's away record stands at 3W 2D 5L across 10 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mallorca are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Cadiz are on 0.86 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mallorca
Blended
Cadiz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mallorca and Cadiz in coming into this match?
Mallorca have gone 4W 8D 9L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Cadiz have gone 3W 8D 10L in their last 21 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mallorca at home or Cadiz away?
Mallorca's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mallorca at home: 1.20 PPG; Cadiz away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mallorca have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cadiz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Mallorca
3
Draws
1
Cadiz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mallorca and Cadiz?
From 6 meetings on record, Mallorca have won 2, Cadiz have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mallorca and Cadiz last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2024, when Cadiz 1-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Mallorca and Cadiz?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cadiz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mallorca 40%, Cadiz 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Mallorca and 50% for Cadiz.
On the defensive side: Mallorca keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Mallorca have failed to score in 40% of games; Cadiz in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mallorca home games / Cadiz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mallorca play Cadiz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Mallorca's recent matches and 40% of Cadiz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mallorca vs Cadiz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Mallorca's recent games and 50% of Cadiz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mallorca and Cadiz tend to score early?
Mallorca have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cadiz in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mallorca edge out Cadiz 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mallorca beat Cadiz 2-1 at Visit Mallorca Estadi, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mallorca 1.01 xG and Cadiz 0.88 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Mallorca beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mallorca attack 0.71 / defence 1.02 against Cadiz attack 0.77 / defence 1.27, drawn from 21/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mallorca 36% | Draw 34% | Cadiz 29%, with Mallorca to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mallorca 38%, Cadiz 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mallorca's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Cadiz's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mallorca 0.95 PPG, Cadiz 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mallorca win broke the near-deadlock. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.