Levante 3-0 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Elche at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Levante vs Elche encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Ciudad de Valencia plays host to Levante versus Elche in La Liga, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Friday 25 February 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Levante have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Elche (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Elche are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Levante 0W, Elche 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Levante half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Elche half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 48% versus Elche 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Elche 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 1.29 xG and Elche 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.848 / defence 1.496 | Elche attack 0.860 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.132 / away 1.178. Elche bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing Levante's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Levante games / 25 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 31% | Draw 28% | Elche 41%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Elche 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Elche at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Elche if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Levante 30% | Elche 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Friday 25 Feb 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 31% | Draw 28% | Elche 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG Levante 1.29 / Elche 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.848 / def 1.496 | Elche attack 0.860 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.132 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Elche (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Elche xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Elche kick off?
Levante vs Elche kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 25 February 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Elche?
Levante 3 - 0 Elche.
Where is Levante vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Elche part of?
Levante vs Elche is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 31% chance of winning, Elche a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Levante and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Elche?
Record (1 meetings): Levante 0W | Draws 1 | Elche 0W.
What form are Levante and Elche in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Elche (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Levante's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Elche's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.86x) against Levante's defence (1.50x) — and the away total comes out at 1.51.
These ratings are built from 25/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
31%
3.25
28%
3.51
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Levante xG
Total xG
2.81
1.51
Elche xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
22%
4.55
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
7%
14.79
11%
8.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 9.1 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Levante and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Levante and 1.51 for Elche, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Levante's recent record stands at 2W 9D 14L from 25 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Elche, meanwhile, have gone 7W 8D 10L across 25 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Elche by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Levante have managed 1W 6D 5L from 12 games — 0.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Elche's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Elche's season.
Attack vs Defence
Levante are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 1.12 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche in 60%.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Elche
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Elche in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 2W 9D 14L in their last 25 games (0.60 PPG), while Elche have gone 7W 8D 10L in their last 25 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Elche away?
Levante's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.75 PPG; Elche away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levante won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Levante have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Elche — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
1
Draws
1
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Elche?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Elche have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Levante 3-2 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Levante and Elche?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Levante see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Elche see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 42%, Elche 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Levante) and 58% (Elche).
On the defensive side: Levante keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Levante have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Levante's recent matches and 67% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Levante's recent games and 58% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Levante run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Elche.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Elche 3-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 1.29 xG and Elche 1.51 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Elche landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.85 / defence 1.50 against Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.35, drawn from 25/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 31% | Draw 28% | Elche 41%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 48%, Elche 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Elche's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Elche arrived the stronger side — 1.16 PPG against 0.60. Form was overturned, with Levante winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.