Levante 2-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Levante vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Alaves travel to Estadio Ciudad de Valencia to take on Levante. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 February 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Levante, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Levante's form when playing at home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 games at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this term (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alaves's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Levante 0.90 PPG, Alaves 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Levante have won 1, Alaves 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 1–2 with Alaves winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Levante trading profile (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Alaves trading profile (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Levante 48% versus Alaves 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Levante 48% | Alaves 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Levante 0.89 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Levante attack 0.603 / defence 1.268 | Alaves attack 0.807 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.135. Levante's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 25 Levante games / 63 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41%. Fair-value odds: Levante 3.70 | Draw 3.12 | Alaves 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Levante 50% | Alaves 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Levante vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Friday 27 Feb 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Levante 0.89 / Alaves 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Levante attack 0.603 / def 1.268 | Alaves attack 0.807 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.135 • Poisson stance: Alaves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Levante xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Alaves xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Levante vs Alaves kick off?
Levante vs Alaves kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 27 February 2026 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Levante vs Alaves?
Levante 2 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Levante vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Levante vs Alaves part of?
Levante vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Levante vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Levante a 27% chance of winning, Alaves a 41% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Levante vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Levante and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Levante vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Alaves?
Record (3 meetings): Levante 1W | Draws 0 | Alaves 2W.
What form are Levante and Alaves in?
Levante (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Alaves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Levante's attack at 0.60x the league average against Alaves's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Levante's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
27%
3.72
32%
3.09
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Levante xG
Total xG
2.05
1.16
Alaves xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
17%
5.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 14.9 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Levante vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Levante and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Levante and 1.16 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Levante vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Levante's recent record stands at 4W 6D 15L from 25 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Levante is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 12L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-W-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Levante on 0.72 PPG, Alaves on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Levante have managed 1W 4D 7L from 12 games — 0.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alaves's away record stands at 2W 2D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Levante are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 0.92 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 25 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Levante
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Levante and Alaves in coming into this match?
Levante have gone 4W 6D 15L in their last 25 games (0.72 PPG), while Alaves have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Levante at home or Alaves away?
Alaves's away record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Levante at home: 0.58 PPG; Alaves away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Levante's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Levante
0
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Levante and Alaves?
From 4 meetings on record, Levante have won 2, Alaves have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Levante and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Levante 2-0 Alaves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Alaves see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Levante 58%, Alaves 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Levante) and 33% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Levante have failed to score in 42% of games; Alaves in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Levante home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Levante play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Levante's recent matches and 42% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Levante vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Levante's recent games and 33% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Levante and Alaves tend to score early?
Levante have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Alaves in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Levante cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Alaves 2-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 26, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Levante 0.89 xG and Alaves 1.16 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Levante beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Alaves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Levante attack 0.60 / defence 1.27 against Alaves attack 0.81 / defence 0.97, drawn from 25/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Levante 27% | Draw 32% | Alaves 41%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Levante 48%, Alaves 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Levante's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Levante 0.72 PPG, Alaves 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Levante (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.