Las Palmas 0-1 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rayo Vallecano at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio de Gran Canaria to face Las Palmas in La Liga, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Friday 9 May 2025 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Las Palmas (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Las Palmas have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Rayo Vallecano have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Rayo Vallecano's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Las Palmas, 0.90 for Rayo Vallecano — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Las Palmas lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2024, ended 3–1 with Las Palmas winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Las Palmas 54% versus Rayo Vallecano 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Las Palmas 42% | Rayo Vallecano 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Las Palmas 1.25 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Las Palmas attack 0.937 / defence 1.267 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.844 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.192. Data: 72 Las Palmas games / 72 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Las Palmas 36% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 37%. Fair-value odds: Las Palmas 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | Rayo Vallecano 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rayo Vallecano are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rayo Vallecano if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Las Palmas 70% | Rayo Vallecano 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estadio de Gran Canaria • Kick-off: Friday 9 May 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Las Palmas 36% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Las Palmas 1.25 / Rayo Vallecano 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Las Palmas attack 0.937 / def 1.267 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.844 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.358 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Rayo Vallecano (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Las Palmas xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Rayo Vallecano xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 9 May 2025 at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What was the final score in Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Las Palmas 0 - 1 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Gran Canaria.
What competition is Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Las Palmas a 36% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rayo Vallecano the favourite.
Will both teams score in Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (3 meetings): Las Palmas 2W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 1W.
What form are Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano in?
Las Palmas (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Las Palmas's attack at 0.94x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.84x) against Las Palmas's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rayo Vallecano Win
36%
2.78
27%
3.73
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Las Palmas xG
Total xG
2.53
1.27
Rayo Vallecano xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.8 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Las Palmas and 1.27 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Las Palmas come into this having played 72 games, going 18W 18D 36L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Rayo Vallecano sit at 1.14 PPG from 72 outings (19W 25D 28L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Las Palmas against 1.14 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Las Palmas's home form reads 10W 11D 15L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Rayo Vallecano have taken 1.06 points per game from 36 outings (9W 11D 16L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Las Palmas are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.90 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 72 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Las Palmas
Current Season
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Las Palmas have gone 18W 18D 36L in their last 72 games (1.00 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 19W 25D 28L in their last 72 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Las Palmas at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Las Palmas's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Las Palmas at home: 1.14 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Las Palmas have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Las Palmas
0
Draws
2
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano?
From 4 meetings on record, Las Palmas have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Las Palmas and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2025, when Las Palmas 0-1 Rayo Vallecano.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Las Palmas see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Las Palmas 58%, Rayo Vallecano 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Las Palmas) and 36% (Rayo Vallecano).
On the defensive side: Rayo Vallecano in 39%; Rayo Vallecano in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Las Palmas home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Las Palmas play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Las Palmas's recent matches and 31% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Las Palmas vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Las Palmas's recent games and 36% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Rayo Vallecano edge out Las Palmas 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Las Palmas 0-1 at Estadio de Gran Canaria, Regular Season - 35, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Las Palmas 1.25 xG and Rayo Vallecano 1.27 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Las Palmas attack 0.94 / defence 1.27 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Las Palmas 36% | Draw 27% | Rayo Vallecano 37%, with Rayo Vallecano to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Las Palmas 42%, Rayo Vallecano 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Las Palmas's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Las Palmas 1.00 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.