Granada CF 4-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Granada CF at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Mallorca travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 19 December 2021, 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Granada CF — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Granada CF's home record at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes: 2W 2D 3L from 7 La Liga appearances (1.14 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mallorca stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mallorca's away record: 2W 2D 4L from 8 road trips in La Liga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Granada CF at 1.30 PPG versus Mallorca's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Granada CF register both teams scoring in 86% of relevant matches, Mallorca in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Granada CF in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Mallorca in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 62% versus Mallorca 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 44% | Mallorca 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.61 xG and Mallorca 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 1.016 / defence 1.432 | Mallorca attack 0.892 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.056 / away 1.131. Mallorca bring a strong defensive rating of 1.503 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Granada CF games / 17 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 41% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 33%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Granada CF at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Granada CF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 86% | Mallorca 62% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Dec 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 41% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Granada CF 1.61 / Mallorca 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 1.016 / def 1.432 | Mallorca attack 0.892 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.056 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Mallorca xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Mallorca kick off?
Granada CF vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 19 December 2021 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Granada CF 4 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Granada CF vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Mallorca part of?
Granada CF vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 41% chance of winning, Mallorca a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Granada CF and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Mallorca?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Granada CF and Mallorca in?
Granada CF (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Mallorca (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Granada CF's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
41%
2.46
26%
3.87
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Granada CF xG
Total xG
3.06
1.44
Mallorca xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
24%
4.24
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
7%
14.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.0 | 7.9 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.44 for Mallorca, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Granada CF come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 7D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mallorca sit at 1.19 PPG from 16 outings (4W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Granada CF on 1.00 PPG, Mallorca on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Granada CF's home form reads 2W 2D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Mallorca have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Granada CF are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.94 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Defensively: Mallorca in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 3W 7D 6L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Mallorca away?
Granada CF's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.14 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Granada CF or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Granada CF have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Mallorca in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 May 2022, when Granada CF won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Granada CF's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Granada CF
0
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 3, Mallorca have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Mallorca 1-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Mallorca?
Granada CF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Mallorca see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Granada CF at 86%, Mallorca at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Granada CF) and 57% (Mallorca). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Granada CF's games and 71% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Granada CF's matches and 57% of Mallorca's.
Do Granada CF and Mallorca tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Granada CF run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Granada CF beat Mallorca 4-1 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 18, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.61 xG and Mallorca 1.44 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Granada CF beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 1.02 / defence 1.43 against Mallorca attack 0.89 / defence 1.50, drawn from 16/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 41% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 33%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 44%, Mallorca 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 1.00 PPG, Mallorca 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Granada CF win broke the near-deadlock. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Mallorca (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.