Granada CF 1-4 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Granada CF at 44%, yet in-form Levante provide a compelling counter-argument — this Granada CF vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes plays host to Granada CF versus Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Sunday 17 April 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Granada CF have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Granada CF have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Granada CF are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes than their overall form suggests.
Levante's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Levante are 0.60 PPG clear of Granada CF in recent La Liga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Granada CF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Levante in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Granada CF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 3–0 with Granada CF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Granada CF half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Levante half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 61% versus Levante 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 48% | Levante 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.58 xG and Levante 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.843 / defence 1.481 | Levante attack 0.808 / defence 1.656. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.062. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.656 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Granada CF games / 31 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 44% | Draw 25% | Levante 30%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Levante 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Granada CF as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Granada CF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 70% | Levante 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 44% | Draw 25% | Levante 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Granada CF 1.58 / Levante 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.843 / def 1.481 | Levante attack 0.808 / def 1.656 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.062 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Levante xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Levante kick off?
Granada CF vs Levante kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Levante?
Granada CF 1 - 4 Levante.
Where is Granada CF vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Levante part of?
Granada CF vs Levante is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 44% chance of winning, Levante a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Granada CF and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Levante?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 1W | Draws 0 | Levante 0W.
What form are Granada CF and Levante in?
Granada CF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. Levante (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (0.84) and Levante's defence rating (1.66), the model arrives at 1.58 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.81x) against Granada CF's defence (1.48x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
44%
2.26
25%
3.96
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.85
1.27
Levante xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
21%
4.86
Win to Nil
12%
8.04
6%
16.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.27 for Levante, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Granada CF's recent record stands at 6W 11D 14L from 31 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with L-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 4W 10D 17L across 31 games — 0.71 PPG, with L-D-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Granada CF against 0.71 for Levante. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Granada CF have managed 4W 5D 6L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 1W 3D 11L across 15 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.13 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Levante in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 6W 11D 14L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Levante have gone 4W 10D 17L in their last 31 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Levante away?
Granada CF's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.13 PPG; Levante away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Granada CF
0
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Levante?
From 2 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 1, Levante have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when Granada CF 1-4 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 73% for Granada CF, 60% for Levante — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Granada CF) and 60% (Levante). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Levante in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Levante?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Granada CF's games and 60% of Levante's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Granada CF's matches and 60% of Levante's.
Do Granada CF and Levante tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Levante in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Levante run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Granada CF 1-4 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 32, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.58 xG and Levante 1.27 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Levante outscored their 1.27 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.84 / defence 1.48 against Levante attack 0.81 / defence 1.66, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 44% | Draw 25% | Levante 30%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Levante win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 48%, Levante 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.94 PPG, Levante 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Granada CF (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.