Granada CF 0-0 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Granada CF at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Granada CF vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Espanyol travel to Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes to take on Granada CF. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 May 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Granada CF — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Granada CF have posted 2W 4D 4L at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Espanyol's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Granada CF at 1.20 PPG versus Espanyol's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Granada CF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Espanyol in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Granada CF, 1 for Espanyol and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Espanyol winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Granada CF in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Espanyol in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 60% versus Espanyol 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 46% | Espanyol 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.42 xG and Espanyol 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.821 / defence 1.467 | Espanyol attack 0.750 / defence 1.580. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.104. Espanyol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.580 — this is suppressing Granada CF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Granada CF games / 37 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Granada CF 40% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 31%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Espanyol 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Granada CF are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Granada CF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Granada CF 60% | Espanyol 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 40% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Granada CF 1.42 / Espanyol 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.821 / def 1.467 | Espanyol attack 0.750 / def 1.580 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Espanyol xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Granada CF vs Espanyol kick off?
Granada CF vs Espanyol kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Espanyol?
Granada CF 0 - 0 Espanyol.
Where is Granada CF vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Espanyol part of?
Granada CF vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 40% chance of winning, Espanyol a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Granada CF and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Granada CF vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Espanyol?
Record (1 meetings): Granada CF 0W | Draws 0 | Espanyol 1W.
What form are Granada CF and Espanyol in?
Granada CF (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Espanyol (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Granada CF's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Espanyol's defensive record (1.58x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Granada CF's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
40%
2.48
29%
3.44
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.64
1.22
Espanyol xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
7%
13.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.22 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, Granada CF have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 8W 13D 16L record — D-D-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Espanyol's form line: 10W 11D 16L from 37 games, 1.11 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Granada CF on 1.00 PPG, Espanyol on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Granada CF have posted 1.17 PPG from 18 outings (5W 6D 7L).
On the road, Espanyol have gone 1W 5D 12L from 18 away games — 0.44 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Espanyol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Granada CF are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.08 scored and 1.43 conceded.
Last 37 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Current Season
Espanyol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Granada CF and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 8W 13D 16L in their last 37 games (1.00 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Espanyol away?
Granada CF's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 1.17 PPG; Espanyol away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Granada CF and Espanyol runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Granada CF
1
Draws
1
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Espanyol?
From 2 meetings on record, Granada CF have won 0, Espanyol have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Granada CF 0-0 Espanyol.
Who has won more matches between Granada CF and Espanyol?
Espanyol have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Granada CF at 72%, Espanyol at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Granada CF) and 61% (Espanyol). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Espanyol in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Granada CF play Espanyol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Granada CF's games and 61% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Granada CF vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Granada CF's matches and 61% of Espanyol's.
Do Granada CF and Espanyol tend to score early?
Granada CF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Granada CF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 38, as Granada CF and Espanyol drew 0-0 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.42 xG and Espanyol 1.22 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Granada CF fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Espanyol landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.82 / defence 1.47 against Espanyol attack 0.75 / defence 1.58, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 40% | Draw 29% | Espanyol 31%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 46%, Espanyol 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Espanyol's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 1.00 PPG, Espanyol 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Espanyol (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.