Granada CF 1-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Granada CF at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Granada CF face Almeria.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes plays host to Granada CF versus Almeria in La Liga (matchday 25). Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Granada CF have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Granada CF's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Almeria's record over their last 10 games: 0W 4D 6L (0.40 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, Almeria have posted 0W 0D 10L from their last 10 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Granada CF, 0.40 for Almeria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Granada CF's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Granada CF's games and 70% of Almeria's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended Granada CF 3–3 Almeria — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Granada CF — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Almeria — key trading statistics (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Granada CF 54% versus Almeria 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Granada CF 42% | Almeria 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Granada CF 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Granada CF attack 0.810 / defence 1.291 | Almeria attack 0.997 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.130. Almeria's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Granada CF's projected output up. Granada CF's defence rating of 1.291 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Almeria's projected output up. Data: built from Granada CF's last 24 games and Almeria's last 62.
Result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 29% | Almeria 35%. Fair-value odds: Granada CF 2.74 | Draw 3.50 | Almeria 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.49 / 1.45) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Granada CF at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Granada CF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.94 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Granada CF's last 10 home games and Almeria's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Granada CF 70% (last 10 home games) | Almeria 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Granada CF vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, matchday 25 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes • Kick-off: Sunday 18 February 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Granada CF 36% | Draw 29% | Almeria 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Granada CF 1.49 / Almeria 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Granada CF attack 0.810 / def 1.291 | Almeria attack 0.997 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Granada CF (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Granada CF xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Almeria xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Granada CF vs Almeria FAQs
What time does Granada CF vs Almeria kick off?
Granada CF vs Almeria kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Sunday 18 February 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What was the final score in Granada CF vs Almeria?
Granada CF 1 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Granada CF vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes.
What competition is Granada CF vs Almeria part of?
Granada CF vs Almeria is a La Liga fixture (matchday 25) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Granada CF vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Granada CF a 36% chance of winning, Almeria a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Granada CF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Granada CF vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Granada CF and Almeria will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Granada CF vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Granada CF's attack rating (0.81) and Almeria's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almeria's attack (1.00x) against Granada CF's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from Granada CF's last 24 games and Almeria's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Granada CF Win
36%
2.74
29%
3.50
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Granada CF xG
Total xG
2.94
1.45
Almeria xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
23%
4.28
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
8%
12.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.5 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Granada CF vs Almeria Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Granada CF vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Granada CF and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Granada CF and 1.45 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Granada CF vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Granada CF come into this having played 24 games, going 2W 7D 15L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D.
On the other side, Almeria sit at 0.29 PPG from 24 outings (0W 7D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.54 PPG for Granada CF against 0.29 for Almeria. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Granada CF's home form reads 2W 5D 5L across their last 12 home games, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Almeria have taken 0.08 points per game from their last 12 away games (0W 1D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Granada CF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Granada CF are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 0.92 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria in 62%.
Last 24 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Granada CF
Blended
Almeria
Blended
Granada CF (Home) vs Almeria (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Granada CF
Blended
Almeria
Blended
❓ Granada CF vs Almeria Form FAQs
What form are Granada CF and Almeria in coming into this match?
Granada CF have gone 2W 7D 15L in their last 24 games (0.54 PPG), while Almeria have gone 0W 7D 17L in their last 24 (0.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Granada CF at home or Almeria away?
Granada CF's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Granada CF at home: 0.92 PPG; Almeria away: 0.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 2 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Granada CF
2
Draws
0
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Granada CF vs Almeria H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Granada CF and Almeria?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Granada CF have won 0, Almeria have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Granada CF and Almeria last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2024: Granada CF 1-1 Almeria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Granada CF, 75% for Almeria — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Granada CF) and 75% (Almeria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Granada CF home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Granada CF vs Almeria Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Granada CF and Almeria matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Granada CF's games and 75% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Granada CF and Almeria matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Granada CF's matches and 75% of Almeria's.
Do Granada CF and Almeria matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Granada CF's recent matches and 83% of Almeria's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Granada CF and Almeria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes, Regular Season - 25, as Granada CF and Almeria drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Granada CF 1.49 xG and Almeria 1.45 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Granada CF attack 0.81 / defence 1.29 against Almeria attack 1.00 / defence 1.35, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Granada CF 36% | Draw 29% | Almeria 35%, with Granada CF to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Granada CF 42%, Almeria 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Granada CF's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Granada CF 0.54 PPG, Almeria 0.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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