Girona 1-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Real Betis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Girona and Real Betis meet at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Girona have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Girona have gone 7W 0D 3L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Real Betis's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Real Betis's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Girona's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Real Betis's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Girona, 1 for Real Betis and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2022, ended 1–2 with Real Betis winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Real Betis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 69% versus Real Betis 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 56% | Real Betis 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.57 xG and Real Betis 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.140 / defence 1.164 | Real Betis attack 0.953 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.039. Data: 36 Girona games / 74 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 47% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 28%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Real Betis 3.57. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Girona as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Girona if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Girona 60% | Real Betis 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 47% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Girona 1.57 / Real Betis 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.140 / def 1.164 | Real Betis attack 0.953 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: Girona (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Real Betis xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Real Betis kick off?
Girona vs Real Betis kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Real Betis?
Girona 1 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Girona vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Real Betis part of?
Girona vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 47% chance of winning, Real Betis a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Girona and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Betis?
Record (1 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 0 | Real Betis 1W.
What form are Girona and Real Betis in?
Girona (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-D. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.14) and Real Betis's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Betis's attack (0.95x) against Girona's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 36/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.99
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Girona xG
Total xG
2.72
1.15
Real Betis xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.79
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
17.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Girona and 1.15 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Girona have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 13W 10D 13L record — W-W-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Real Betis's form line: 16W 8D 12L from 36 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-W-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Girona against 1.56 for Real Betis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.83 PPG from 18 outings (10W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 7W 4D 7L from 18 away games — 1.39 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Girona are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.19 scored and 1.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Betis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Current Season
Real Betis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 13W 10D 13L in their last 36 games (1.36 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 16W 8D 12L in their last 36 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Real Betis away?
Girona's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.83 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Girona or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Real Betis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Girona have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Real Betis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Girona
3
Draws
4
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Real Betis?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 1, Real Betis have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when Girona 2-3 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 72%, Real Betis 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Girona) and 44% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Real Betis in 33%; Real Betis in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Real Betis?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Girona's games and 39% of Real Betis's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Girona's recent games and 44% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Real Betis tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Real Betis defy the odds to beat Girona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Girona 1-2 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 37, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.57 xG and Real Betis 1.15 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Real Betis outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.14 / defence 1.16 against Real Betis attack 0.95 / defence 0.94, drawn from 36/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 47% | Draw 25% | Real Betis 28%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Real Betis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 56%, Real Betis 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Real Betis's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.36 PPG, Real Betis 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Real Betis win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.