Girona 2-1 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Las Palmas travel to Estadi Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Monday 3 February 2025, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Girona — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Las Palmas stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.60 PPG versus Las Palmas's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Girona have won 2, Las Palmas 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Las Palmas winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Girona in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Las Palmas in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 52% versus Las Palmas 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 61% | Las Palmas 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.82 xG and Las Palmas 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.171 / defence 1.177 | Las Palmas attack 1.018 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.130. Data: 59 Girona games / 59 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 48% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 29%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.08 | Draw 4.35 | Las Palmas 3.45. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Girona 50% | Las Palmas 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 3 Feb 2025, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 48% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Girona 1.82 / Las Palmas 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.171 / def 1.177 | Las Palmas attack 1.018 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.415 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Girona (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Las Palmas xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Las Palmas kick off?
Girona vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 3 February 2025 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Girona 2 - 1 Las Palmas.
Where is Girona vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Las Palmas part of?
Girona vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 48% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 29% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Girona and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Las Palmas?
Record (3 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 0 | Las Palmas 1W.
What form are Girona and Las Palmas in?
Girona (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Las Palmas (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Girona's attack at 1.17x the league average against Las Palmas's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Las Palmas's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
48%
2.07
23%
4.37
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Girona xG
Total xG
3.17
1.35
Las Palmas xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.37
23%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
16%
6.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.01
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Girona and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Girona and 1.35 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona come into this having played 59 games, going 33W 10D 16L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Las Palmas sit at 1.07 PPG from 59 outings (16W 15D 28L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.78 PPG clear of Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Girona's home form reads 20W 3D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Las Palmas have taken 0.90 points per game from 29 outings (7W 5D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.93 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 1.00 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 33W 10D 16L in their last 59 games (1.85 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 16W 15D 28L in their last 59 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Las Palmas away?
Girona's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 2.17 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Girona or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Girona have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Girona's record when hosting Las Palmas specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Girona
0
Draws
1
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Las Palmas have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 3 February 2025, when Girona 2-1 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Las Palmas?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 48%, Las Palmas 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 72% (Girona) and 41% (Las Palmas). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Las Palmas in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Girona's recent matches and 45% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Girona's matches and 41% of Las Palmas's.
Do Girona and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Las Palmas 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Las Palmas 2-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 22, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.82 xG and Las Palmas 1.35 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.17 / defence 1.18 against Las Palmas attack 1.02 / defence 1.10, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 48% | Draw 23% | Las Palmas 29%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 61%, Las Palmas 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Las Palmas's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.07. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.