Girona 1-1 Getafe – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Girona at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Girona vs Getafe encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Getafe travel to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi to take on Girona. The game is scheduled for Monday 26 January 2026, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Girona have posted 3W 3D 4L at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi this season.
Getafe — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Getafe, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Getafe have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Girona are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Girona have won 3, Getafe 4, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2025, ended 1–2 with Getafe winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Getafe trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 53% versus Getafe 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 55% | Getafe 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.26 xG and Getafe 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.792 / defence 1.199 | Getafe attack 0.760 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.120. Girona's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 58 Girona games / 58 Getafe games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 41% | Draw 30% | Getafe 29%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Getafe 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Girona are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Girona 40% | Getafe 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Getafe | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Monday 26 Jan 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 41% | Draw 30% | Getafe 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Girona 1.26 / Getafe 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.792 / def 1.199 | Getafe attack 0.760 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Girona (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Getafe xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Getafe kick off?
Girona vs Getafe kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 26 January 2026 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Getafe?
Girona 1 - 1 Getafe.
Where is Girona vs Getafe being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Getafe part of?
Girona vs Getafe is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Getafe?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 41% chance of winning, Getafe a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Getafe?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Girona and Getafe will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Getafe have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Getafe?
Record (7 meetings): Girona 3W | Draws 0 | Getafe 4W.
What form are Girona and Getafe in?
Girona (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Getafe (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Getafe's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, Getafe's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
41%
2.45
30%
3.31
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Girona xG
Total xG
2.28
1.02
Getafe xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Getafe?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Girona and Getafe expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Girona and 1.02 for Getafe, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Getafe?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona's recent record stands at 17W 14D 27L from 58 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Getafe, meanwhile, have gone 17W 12D 29L across 58 games — 1.09 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Getafe is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.12 PPG, Getafe on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Girona have managed 10W 6D 13L from 29 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Getafe's away record stands at 10W 3D 16L across 29 trips, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Getafe are on 0.84 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 58 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Getafe
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Getafe in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 17W 14D 27L in their last 58 games (1.12 PPG), while Getafe have gone 17W 12D 29L in their last 58 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Getafe away?
Girona's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.24 PPG; Getafe away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Aug 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Getafe specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Girona
1
Draws
4
Getafe
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Getafe?
From 8 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Getafe have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Getafe last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when Girona 1-1 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Getafe?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Getafe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 48%, Getafe 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Girona) and 45% (Getafe).
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 34% of games; Getafe in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Getafe away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Getafe?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Girona's recent matches and 34% of Getafe's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Getafe usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Girona's recent games and 45% of Getafe's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Getafe tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Getafe in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Girona and Getafe share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona and Getafe finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 21, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.26 xG and Getafe 1.02 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.79 / defence 1.20 against Getafe attack 0.76 / defence 1.08, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 41% | Draw 30% | Getafe 29%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 55%, Getafe 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Getafe's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.12 PPG, Getafe 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.