Girona 2-1 Espanyol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Girona at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Espanyol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Girona host Espanyol at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi in La Liga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Girona have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Espanyol stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Espanyol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Espanyol have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Girona at 1.30 PPG versus Espanyol's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Girona, 0 for Espanyol and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Girona trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Espanyol trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Girona 73% and Espanyol 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 58% | Espanyol 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.68 xG and Espanyol 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 1.114 / defence 1.244 | Espanyol attack 1.052 / defence 1.123. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 0.987. Data: 26 Girona games / 64 Espanyol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 47% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 29%. Fair-value odds: Girona 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Espanyol 3.45. Girona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Girona at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Girona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Girona 70% | Espanyol 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Espanyol | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Estadi Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 47% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Girona 1.68 / Espanyol 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 1.114 / def 1.244 | Espanyol attack 1.052 / def 1.123 | league avg home 1.345 / away 0.987 • Poisson stance: Girona (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Espanyol xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Espanyol kick off?
Girona vs Espanyol kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Espanyol?
Girona 2 - 1 Espanyol.
Where is Girona vs Espanyol being played?
The match is being played at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Espanyol part of?
Girona vs Espanyol is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Espanyol?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 47% chance of winning, Espanyol a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Girona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Espanyol?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Girona and Espanyol will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Espanyol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Espanyol?
Record (1 meetings): Girona 0W | Draws 1 | Espanyol 0W.
What form are Girona and Espanyol in?
Girona (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. Espanyol (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Girona's attack rating (1.11) and Espanyol's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Espanyol's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Girona Win
47%
2.14
24%
4.18
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Girona xG
Total xG
2.98
1.29
Espanyol xG
2.14
47%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
13%
7.81
5%
18.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Espanyol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Girona and Espanyol expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Girona and 1.29 for Espanyol, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Espanyol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, Girona have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 7D 11L record — W-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Espanyol's form line: 6W 9D 11L from 26 games, 1.04 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Espanyol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 1.19 PPG, Espanyol on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Girona have posted 1.62 PPG from 13 outings (6W 3D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Girona are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Espanyol have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Girona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Girona are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Espanyol are on 1.23 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Girona have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; Espanyol in 73%.
Last 26 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Espanyol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Espanyol in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while Espanyol have gone 6W 9D 11L in their last 26 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Espanyol away?
Girona's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.62 PPG; Espanyol away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Girona and Espanyol runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Girona won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Espanyol specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Girona
3
Draws
0
Espanyol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Espanyol?
From 6 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Espanyol have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Espanyol last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when Espanyol 0-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Espanyol?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Girona see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Girona at 69%, Espanyol at 77%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Girona) and 54% (Espanyol).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Espanyol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Espanyol?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Girona's games and 77% of Espanyol's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Girona vs Espanyol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Girona's recent games and 54% of Espanyol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Girona and Espanyol tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Espanyol in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Girona edge out Espanyol 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Espanyol 2-1 at Estadi Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 27, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.68 xG and Espanyol 1.29 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 1.11 / defence 1.24 against Espanyol attack 1.05 / defence 1.12, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 47% | Draw 24% | Espanyol 29%, with Girona to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 58%, Espanyol 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Espanyol's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 1.19 PPG, Espanyol 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.