Girona 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alaves at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Girona vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 12 as Girona welcome Alaves to Estadio Municipal de Montilivi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 November 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Girona stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Girona's home record at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi: 2W 2D 6L from 10 La Liga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Across all La Liga games this season, Alaves have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Alaves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Alaves have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Alaves's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Girona's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Girona, 1 for Alaves and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Alaves winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Girona in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Alaves in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Girona 55% versus Alaves 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Girona 57% | Alaves 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Girona 1.02 xG and Alaves 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Girona attack 0.842 / defence 1.448 | Alaves attack 0.758 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.435 / away 1.152. Data: 49 Girona games / 49 Alaves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Girona 29% | Draw 30% | Alaves 41%. Fair-value odds: Girona 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | Alaves 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Alaves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Girona 40% | Alaves 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Girona vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Municipal de Montilivi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Nov 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Girona 29% | Draw 30% | Alaves 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Girona 1.02 / Alaves 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Girona attack 0.842 / def 1.448 | Alaves attack 0.758 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.435 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Alaves (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Girona xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Alaves xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Girona vs Alaves kick off?
Girona vs Alaves kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 November 2025 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What was the final score in Girona vs Alaves?
Girona 1 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Girona vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi.
What competition is Girona vs Alaves part of?
Girona vs Alaves is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Girona vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Girona a 29% chance of winning, Alaves a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Girona vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Girona and Alaves will score (BTTS).
Will Girona vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Alaves?
Record (4 meetings): Girona 2W | Draws 1 | Alaves 1W.
What form are Girona and Alaves in?
Girona (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Alaves (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Girona's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Alaves's attack versus Girona's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
29%
3.46
30%
3.34
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Girona xG
Total xG
2.28
1.26
Alaves xG
3.46
29%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.24
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Girona vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Girona and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Girona and 1.26 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Girona vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Girona's recent record stands at 12W 12D 25L from 49 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 14W 15D 20L across 49 games — 1.16 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Alaves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Girona on 0.98 PPG, Alaves on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Girona have managed 7W 5D 12L from 24 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Alaves's away record stands at 5W 7D 12L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Girona are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.00 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 49 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Girona
Blended
Alaves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Girona and Alaves in coming into this match?
Girona have gone 12W 12D 25L in their last 49 games (0.98 PPG), while Alaves have gone 14W 15D 20L in their last 49 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Girona at home or Alaves away?
Girona's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Girona at home: 1.08 PPG; Alaves away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Dec 2023, when Girona won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Girona's record when hosting Alaves specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Girona
2
Draws
1
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Girona and Alaves?
From 6 meetings on record, Girona have won 3, Alaves have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Girona and Alaves last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Alaves 2-2 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Girona and Alaves?
Girona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Girona 54%, Alaves 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Girona) and 46% (Alaves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Girona have failed to score in 38% of games; Alaves in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Girona home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Girona play Alaves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Girona's recent matches and 54% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Girona vs Alaves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Girona's matches and 46% of Alaves's.
Do Girona and Alaves tend to score early?
Girona have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Alaves in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Girona defy the odds to beat Alaves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Girona beat Alaves 1-0 at Estadio Municipal de Montilivi, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Girona 1.02 xG and Alaves 1.26 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Alaves landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Girona attack 0.84 / defence 1.45 against Alaves attack 0.76 / defence 0.84, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Girona 29% | Draw 30% | Alaves 41%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Girona win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Girona 57%, Alaves 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Girona's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Girona 0.98 PPG, Alaves 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Girona win broke the near-deadlock. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.