Getafe 2-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Getafe at 37%, yet in-form Alaves provide a compelling counter-argument — this Getafe vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Coliseum plays host to Getafe versus Alaves in La Liga (matchday 8). Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Getafe (all games): 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Getafe have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Alaves's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Alaves have posted 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Alaves are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Getafe, 1 for Alaves and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 May 2024, ended Getafe 0–1 Alaves — a Alaves win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Getafe goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Alaves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Getafe 44% versus Alaves 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Getafe 38% | Alaves 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Getafe 1.29 xG and Alaves 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Getafe attack 0.739 / defence 0.953 | Alaves attack 1.158 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.076. Getafe's attack rating of 0.739 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.29. Alaves's defence rating of 1.217 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Getafe's projected output up. Data: built from Getafe's last 45 games and Alaves's last 45.
Result probabilities: Getafe 37% | Draw 32% | Alaves 32%. Fair-value odds: Getafe 2.73 | Draw 3.14 | Alaves 3.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Getafe as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Alaves (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Getafe if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Getafe 40% (last 10 home games) | Alaves 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Getafe vs Alaves | Competition: La Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Estadio Coliseum • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Getafe 37% | Draw 32% | Alaves 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Getafe 1.29 / Alaves 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Getafe attack 0.739 / def 0.953 | Alaves attack 1.158 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Getafe (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Getafe xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Alaves xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Getafe vs Alaves FAQs
What time does Getafe vs Alaves kick off?
Getafe vs Alaves kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Estadio Coliseum.
What was the final score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Getafe 2 - 0 Alaves.
Where is Getafe vs Alaves being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Coliseum.
What competition is Getafe vs Alaves part of?
Getafe vs Alaves is a La Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Getafe vs Alaves?
Our statistical model gives Getafe a 37% chance of winning, Alaves a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Getafe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Getafe vs Alaves?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Getafe and Alaves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Getafe vs Alaves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Getafe's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Alaves's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Alaves's attack (1.16x) against Getafe's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Getafe's last 45 games and Alaves's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Getafe Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.14
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Getafe xG
Total xG
2.48
1.19
Alaves xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Getafe vs Alaves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Getafe vs Alaves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Getafe and Alaves expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Getafe and 1.19 for Alaves, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Getafe vs Alaves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Getafe's recent record stands at 10W 17D 18L from 45 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five.
Alaves, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 19L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Getafe against 1.24 for Alaves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Getafe have managed 8W 8D 6L from their last 22 home games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Getafe are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Alaves's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across their last 22 away games, a 0.82 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.24 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Alaves's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Getafe come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Getafe are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Alaves are on 1.04 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Getafe
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
Getafe (Home) vs Alaves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Getafe
Early Season
Alaves
Early Season
❓ Getafe vs Alaves Form FAQs
What form are Getafe and Alaves in coming into this match?
Getafe have gone 10W 17D 18L in their last 45 games (1.04 PPG), while Alaves have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Getafe at home or Alaves away?
Getafe's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Getafe at home: 1.45 PPG; Alaves away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Getafe and Alaves, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Alaves won Alaves 3-0 Getafe on 15 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Getafe have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Alaves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Getafe
3
Draws
2
Alaves
Recent Meetings
❓ Getafe vs Alaves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Getafe and Alaves?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Getafe have won 4, Alaves have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Getafe and Alaves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 August 2026: Alaves 3-0 Getafe.
Who has won more matches between Getafe and Alaves?
Getafe have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Getafe see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Getafe 36%, Alaves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Getafe) and 46% (Alaves).
On the defensive side: Getafe keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Getafe have failed to score in 41% of games; Alaves in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Getafe home games / Alaves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Getafe vs Alaves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Getafe and Alaves matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Getafe's recent matches and 50% of Alaves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Getafe and Alaves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Getafe's recent games and 46% of Alaves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Getafe and Alaves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Getafe's recent matches and 64% of Alaves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Getafe cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Getafe beat Alaves 2-0 at Estadio Coliseum, Regular Season - 8, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Getafe 1.29 xG and Alaves 1.19 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Alaves landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Getafe attack 0.74 / defence 0.95 against Alaves attack 1.16 / defence 1.22, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Getafe 37% | Draw 32% | Alaves 32%, with Getafe to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Getafe 38%, Alaves 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Getafe's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Alaves's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Getafe 1.04 PPG, Alaves 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Getafe win broke the near-deadlock. Getafe (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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