Espanyol vs Osasuna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Espanyol at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Espanyol vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 25 as Espanyol welcome Osasuna to RCDE Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 21 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Espanyol have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Espanyol have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Espanyol's home record at RCDE Stadium: 2W 4D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Osasuna have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Espanyol at 1.10 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Espanyol register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Osasuna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Espanyol, 2 for Osasuna and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.4 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Espanyol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Espanyol in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Espanyol 58% versus Osasuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Espanyol 54% | Osasuna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Espanyol 1.52 xG and Osasuna 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Espanyol attack 0.994 / defence 0.992 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.139. Data: 41 Espanyol games / 41 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Espanyol 46% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 29%. Fair-value odds: Espanyol 2.17 | Draw 4.00 | Osasuna 3.45. Espanyol hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Espanyol are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Espanyol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Espanyol 60% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Espanyol vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: RCDE Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Espanyol 46% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Espanyol 1.52 / Osasuna 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Espanyol attack 0.994 / def 0.992 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Espanyol (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Espanyol xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Osasuna xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Espanyol vs Osasuna kick off?
Espanyol vs Osasuna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 21 February 2027 at RCDE Stadium.
Where is Espanyol vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at RCDE Stadium.
What competition is Espanyol vs Osasuna part of?
Espanyol vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Espanyol a 46% chance of winning, Osasuna a 29% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Espanyol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Espanyol and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Espanyol vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
Record (8 meetings): Espanyol 2W | Draws 4 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in?
Espanyol (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Espanyol's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Espanyol's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Espanyol Win
46%
2.18
25%
3.93
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Espanyol xG
Total xG
2.67
1.15
Osasuna xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.86
6%
16.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.1 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Espanyol and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Espanyol and 1.15 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Espanyol vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Espanyol come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 10D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Espanyol, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.20 PPG from 41 outings (13W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Espanyol on 1.20 PPG, Osasuna on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Espanyol's home form reads 7W 5D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.65 points per game from 20 outings (3W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Espanyol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Espanyol are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Espanyol
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Espanyol and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Espanyol have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Espanyol at home or Osasuna away?
Espanyol's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Espanyol at home: 1.30 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Espanyol have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Espanyol's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Espanyol
4
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Espanyol and Osasuna?
From 8 meetings on record, Espanyol have won 2, Osasuna have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Espanyol and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Osasuna 1-2 Espanyol.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Espanyol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Espanyol 50%, Osasuna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Espanyol) and 40% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Espanyol home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Espanyol play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Espanyol's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Espanyol vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Espanyol's recent games and 40% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Espanyol and Osasuna tend to score early?
Espanyol have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.