Elche 2-1 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 49%, yet in-form Mallorca provide a compelling counter-argument — this Elche vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Elche host Mallorca at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 March 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Elche stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Elche have posted 2W 6D 2L at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — Elche are significantly better at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mallorca's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Mallorca — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Elche have won 2, Mallorca 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–3 with Mallorca winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Elche in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Mallorca in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Elche 71% and Mallorca 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 61% | Mallorca 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.60 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.934 / defence 1.144 | Mallorca attack 0.823 / defence 1.105. League average goals — home 1.550 / away 1.119. Data: 28 Elche games / 66 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 49% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 24%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Mallorca 4.17. Elche hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Elche are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mallorca (1.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Elche offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Elche 60% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Mar 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 49% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Elche 1.60 / Mallorca 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.934 / def 1.144 | Mallorca attack 0.823 / def 1.105 | league avg home 1.550 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Elche (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Mallorca xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Mallorca kick off?
Elche vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 21 March 2026 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Mallorca?
Elche 2 - 1 Mallorca.
Where is Elche vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Mallorca part of?
Elche vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 49% chance of winning, Mallorca a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Elche and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Mallorca?
Record (5 meetings): Elche 2W | Draws 2 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Elche and Mallorca in?
Elche (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Elche's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Mallorca's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Mallorca's attack versus Elche's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
49%
2.02
26%
3.83
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Elche xG
Total xG
2.65
1.05
Mallorca xG
2.02
49%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
17%
5.79
5%
20.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 11.9 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Elche and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Elche and 1.05 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 28 outings, Elche have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 5W 11D 12L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Mallorca's form line: 7W 7D 14L from 28 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Elche on 0.93 PPG, Mallorca on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Elche have posted 1.57 PPG from 14 outings (5W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Elche are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 1W 3D 10L from 14 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mallorca's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Elche come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Elche are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.18 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Mallorca in 64%.
Last 28 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Current Season
Mallorca
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 5W 11D 12L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 7W 7D 14L in their last 28 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Mallorca away?
Elche's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.57 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Elche and Mallorca runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Apr 2022, when Elche won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Elche's record when hosting Mallorca specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Elche
2
Draws
1
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Mallorca?
From 6 meetings on record, Elche have won 3, Mallorca have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Elche 2-1 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Mallorca?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 57%, Mallorca 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Elche and 71% for Mallorca. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Elche keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Mallorca in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Mallorca?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Elche's games and 57% of Mallorca's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Elche vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Elche's matches and 71% of Mallorca's.
Do Elche and Mallorca tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Elche edge out Mallorca 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Elche beat Mallorca 2-1 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.60 xG and Mallorca 1.05 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.93 / defence 1.14 against Mallorca attack 0.82 / defence 1.10, drawn from 28/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 49% | Draw 26% | Mallorca 24%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 61%, Mallorca 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 0.93 PPG, Mallorca 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Elche win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.