Elche 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as Elche take on Levante.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero plays host to Elche versus Levante in La Liga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 18 September 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Elche have collected 1.25 PPG across 4 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 1L. Last five: D L D W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Elche have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante (all games): 0W 3D 1L across 4 La Liga outings this term — 0.75 points per game. Last five: D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Elche's favour (1.25 vs 0.75) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
Elche goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Levante goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 50% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Elche 25% versus Levante 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Elche 0% | Levante 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 0.95 xG and Levante 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.865 / defence 1.054 | Levante attack 0.718 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.957 / away 1.076. Data: 4 Elche games / 4 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 34% | Draw 40% | Levante 26%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.94 | Draw 2.50 | Levante 3.85. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 26% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Elche 25% | Levante 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 34% | Draw 40% | Levante 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Elche 0.95 / Levante 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.865 / def 1.054 | Levante attack 0.718 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.957 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Elche xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Levante xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Levante kick off?
Elche vs Levante kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Levante?
Elche 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Elche vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Levante part of?
Elche vs Levante is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 34% chance of winning, Levante a 26% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Elche and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Elche and Levante in?
Elche (all comps): 1W-2D-1L in 4 | 1.25 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-L-D-W. Levante (all comps): 0W-3D-1L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Elche's attack at 0.86x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Levante's attack (0.72x) against Elche's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
34%
2.94
40%
2.52
26%
3.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Elche xG
Total xG
1.77
0.81
Levante xG
2.94
34%
Home win
2.52
40%
Draw
3.79
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.67
63%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
39%
2.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
10%
9.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 13.9 | 5.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.3 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Elche and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Elche and 0.81 for Levante, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 4 outings, Elche have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 1W 2D 1L record — D-L-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Elche, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Levante's form line: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games, 0.75 PPG, last five D-D-L-D. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Elche are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Levante.
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Levante in 75%.
Defensively: Elche have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Early Season
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Levante in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 games (1.25 PPG), while Levante have gone 0W 3D 1L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
Have Elche or Levante been keeping clean sheets recently?
Elche have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Levante in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Levante won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Elche have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Levante — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Elche
1
Draws
2
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Levante have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Levante 3-2 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Levante?
Levante have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Elche see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 25%, Levante 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Elche and 25% for Levante.
On the defensive side: Elche keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Elche have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Elche's recent matches and 75% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Elche vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Elche's recent games and 25% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Levante tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Levante in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Elche and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 5, as Elche and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 0.95 xG and Levante 0.81 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.86 / defence 1.05 against Levante attack 0.72 / defence 1.15, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 34% | Draw 40% | Levante 26%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 0%, Levante 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Levante's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Elche arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.