Elche 0-0 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Elche at 38%, yet in-form Granada CF provide a compelling counter-argument — this Elche vs Granada CF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Elche and Granada CF meet at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 January 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Elche have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Elche, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Elche's home record at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero: 2W 4D 2L from 8 La Liga appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.25 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Elche are significantly better at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero than their overall form suggests.
Granada CF (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Granada CF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Granada CF have posted 1W 5D 3L from 9 away outings — 0.89 PPG. Away from home they average 0.89 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.89 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Granada CF are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Elche — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Granada CF — key trading statistics (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Elche 61% and Granada CF 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Elche 50% | Granada CF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Elche 1.25 xG and Granada CF 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Elche attack 0.950 / defence 1.271 | Granada CF attack 0.794 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.095 / away 1.142. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing Elche's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 Elche games / 18 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Elche 38% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 33%. Fair-value odds: Elche 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Granada CF 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Elche are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Granada CF (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Elche if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Elche 62% | Granada CF 44%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Elche vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jan 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Elche 38% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Elche 1.25 / Granada CF 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Elche attack 0.950 / def 1.271 | Granada CF attack 0.794 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.095 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Elche (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Elche xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Granada CF xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Elche vs Granada CF kick off?
Elche vs Granada CF kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 2 January 2022 at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What was the final score in Elche vs Granada CF?
Elche 0 - 0 Granada CF.
Where is Elche vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero.
What competition is Elche vs Granada CF part of?
Elche vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Elche vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Elche a 38% chance of winning, Granada CF a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Elche the favourite.
Will both teams score in Elche vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Elche and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Elche vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Granada CF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Elche and Granada CF in?
Elche (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Granada CF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Elche's attack at 0.95x the league average against Granada CF's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Granada CF's attack (0.79x) against Elche's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Elche Win
38%
2.66
30%
3.37
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Elche xG
Total xG
2.41
1.15
Granada CF xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
12%
8.42
9%
10.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.4 | 6.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.0 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Elche vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Elche and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Elche and 1.15 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Elche vs Granada CF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Elche have picked up 0.83 PPG on a 3W 6D 9L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Elche is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Granada CF's form line: 5W 7D 6L from 18 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-W. The sample for Granada CF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Elche against 1.22 for Granada CF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Elche have posted 1.25 PPG from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 0.83 PPG overall — Elche are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Granada CF have gone 1W 4D 3L from 8 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Elche are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.28 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Elche have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Granada CF in 67%.
Last 18 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Elche
Blended
Granada CF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Elche and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Elche have gone 3W 6D 9L in their last 18 games (0.83 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 5W 7D 6L in their last 18 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Elche at home or Granada CF away?
Elche's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Elche at home: 1.25 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Elche
1
Draws
0
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Elche and Granada CF?
From 2 meetings on record, Elche have won 1, Granada CF have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Elche and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Granada CF 0-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Elche and Granada CF?
Elche have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Elche 62%, Granada CF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Elche) and 38% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Granada CF in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Elche home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Elche play Granada CF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Elche's games and 50% of Granada CF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Elche vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Elche's recent games and 38% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Elche and Granada CF tend to score early?
Elche have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Elche's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Regular Season - 19, as Elche and Granada CF drew 0-0 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Elche 1.25 xG and Granada CF 1.15 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Elche fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Granada CF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Elche attack 0.95 / defence 1.27 against Granada CF attack 0.79 / defence 1.21, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Elche 38% | Draw 30% | Granada CF 33%, with Elche to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Elche 50%, Granada CF 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Elche's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Granada CF's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Elche 0.83 PPG, Granada CF 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Elche (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Granada CF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.