Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Deportivo La Coruna at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 9 as Deportivo La Coruna welcome Levante to Estadio de Riazor. Kick-off is set for Friday 16 October 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Deportivo La Coruna have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 outings — a 1.25 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.38 conceded. Both teams have scored in 88% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Deportivo La Coruna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deportivo La Coruna's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 1L across 4 games at Estadio de Riazor this term (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Levante — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Levante have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.25 PPG (Deportivo La Coruna) versus 1.20 (Levante). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Deportivo La Coruna trading profile (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Levante trading profile (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deportivo La Coruna 88% and Levante 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deportivo La Coruna 38% | Levante 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deportivo La Coruna 1.40 xG and Levante 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.803 / defence 0.981 | Levante attack 0.693 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 1.660 / away 1.265. Data: 8 Deportivo La Coruna games / 45 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deportivo La Coruna 49% | Draw 29% | Levante 22%. Fair-value odds: Deportivo La Coruna 2.04 | Draw 3.45 | Levante 4.55. Deportivo La Coruna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Deportivo La Coruna as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deportivo La Coruna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Deportivo La Coruna 75% | Levante 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio de Riazor • Kick-off: Friday 16 Oct 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deportivo La Coruna 49% | Draw 29% | Levante 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Deportivo La Coruna 1.40 / Levante 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.803 / def 0.981 | Levante attack 0.693 / def 1.049 | league avg home 1.660 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Deportivo La Coruna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Deportivo La Coruna xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Levante xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante kick off?
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 October 2026 at Estadio de Riazor.
What was the final score in Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Deportivo La Coruna 1 - 1 Levante.
Where is Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Riazor.
What competition is Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante part of?
Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Deportivo La Coruna a 49% chance of winning, Levante a 22% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Deportivo La Coruna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Deportivo La Coruna and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo La Coruna and Levante?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deportivo La Coruna and Levante in?
Deportivo La Coruna (all comps): 2W-4D-2L in 8 | 1.25 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.38 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Levante (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Deportivo La Coruna's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Levante's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Deportivo La Coruna's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deportivo La Coruna Win
49%
2.06
29%
3.42
22%
4.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Deportivo La Coruna xG
Total xG
2.26
0.86
Levante xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
4.51
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
18.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.6 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.8 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Deportivo La Coruna and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Deportivo La Coruna and 0.86 for Levante, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Deportivo La Coruna's recent record stands at 2W 4D 2L from 8 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Deportivo La Coruna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 4L across 8 games — 0.75 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Levante, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Deportivo La Coruna by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Levante heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Deportivo La Coruna have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 0W 2D 2L across 4 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deportivo La Coruna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Deportivo La Coruna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.50 scored and 2.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deportivo La Coruna have seen both teams score in 88% of their recent games; Levante in 62%.
Last 8 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deportivo La Coruna
Blended
Levante
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deportivo La Coruna and Levante in coming into this match?
Deportivo La Coruna have gone 2W 4D 2L in their last 8 games (1.25 PPG), while Levante have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deportivo La Coruna at home or Levante away?
Deportivo La Coruna's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deportivo La Coruna at home: 1.25 PPG; Levante away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Deportivo La Coruna
1
Draws
0
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deportivo La Coruna and Levante?
From 1 meetings on record, Deportivo La Coruna have won 0, Levante have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Deportivo La Coruna and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Deportivo La Coruna 1-1 Levante.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Deportivo La Coruna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Levante see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Deportivo La Coruna 75%, Levante 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Deportivo La Coruna) and 50% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 50%; Levante in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deportivo La Coruna home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deportivo La Coruna play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Deportivo La Coruna's recent matches and 25% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Deportivo La Coruna's recent games and 50% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Deportivo La Coruna and Levante tend to score early?
Deportivo La Coruna have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Levante in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deportivo La Coruna and Levante share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio de Riazor, Regular Season - 9, as Deportivo La Coruna and Levante drew 1-1 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deportivo La Coruna 1.40 xG and Levante 0.86 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deportivo La Coruna attack 0.80 / defence 0.98 against Levante attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 8/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deportivo La Coruna 49% | Draw 29% | Levante 22%, with Deportivo La Coruna to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deportivo La Coruna 38%, Levante 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deportivo La Coruna's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deportivo La Coruna arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.