Celta Vigo 3-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 82% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Valladolid encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Abanca-Balaídos plays host to Celta Vigo versus Valladolid in La Liga (matchday 5). Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Celta Vigo have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Valladolid (all games): 1W 1D 2L across their last 4 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.25 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Form favours the hosts. Celta Vigo's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Valladolid's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2023, ended Celta Vigo 3–0 Valladolid — a Celta Vigo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Celta Vigo half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 75%.
Valladolid half-time and goal-timing data (last 4 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 100% versus Valladolid 0%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Celta Vigo 100% | Valladolid 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 2.88 xG and Valladolid 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.187 / defence 1.034 | Valladolid attack 0.667 / defence 1.684. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 0.989. Valladolid's defence rating of 1.684 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Celta Vigo's projected output up. Valladolid's attack rating of 0.667 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.68. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 42 games and Valladolid's last 4.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 82% | Draw 13% | Valladolid 5%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.23 | Draw 7.69 | Valladolid 18.21. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (82%) — a 69pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 3.56. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.56 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 82% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.56 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Celta Vigo's last 10 home games and Valladolid's last 4 games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 70% (last 10 home games) | Valladolid 0% (last 4 games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, matchday 5 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 82% | Draw 13% | Valladolid 5% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% (Under 31%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Celta Vigo 2.88 / Valladolid 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.187 / def 1.034 | Valladolid attack 0.667 / def 1.684 | league avg home 1.441 / away 0.989 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (82%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.88
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Valladolid xG
47%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Valladolid FAQs
What time does Celta Vigo vs Valladolid kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Valladolid kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Valladolid?
Celta Vigo 3 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Valladolid part of?
Celta Vigo vs Valladolid is a La Liga fixture (matchday 5) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 82% chance of winning, Valladolid a 5% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Celta Vigo and Valladolid will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Celta Vigo vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Celta Vigo's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Valladolid's defensive record (1.68x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.88. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.67x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from Celta Vigo's last 42 games and Valladolid's last 4 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.8%. Close behind: 3-0 (11.3%), 4-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
82%
1.23
13%
7.69
5%
18.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.88
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
3.56
0.68
Valladolid xG
1.23
82%
Home win
7.69
13%
Draw
18.21
5%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
6%
17.81
Win to Nil
41%
2.43
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.8 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.3 | 7.7 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.7 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Celta Vigo vs Valladolid Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 2.88 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.68 for Valladolid, a combined total of 3.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 82%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 4 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 0D 2L record — W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Valladolid's form line: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games, 1.00 PPG, last five W-L-D-L.
Put side by side, Celta Vigo are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valladolid.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Celta Vigo are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.25 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Valladolid in 0%.
Defensively: Valladolid in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Valladolid
Early Season
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Valladolid (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Valladolid
Early Season
❓ Celta Vigo vs Valladolid Form FAQs
What form are Celta Vigo and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 1W 1D 2L in their last 4 (1.00 PPG).
Have Celta Vigo or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Valladolid in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent in our data was on 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Celta Vigo have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valladolid won Valladolid 4-1 Celta Vigo on 19 Oct 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valladolid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Celta Vigo
0
Draws
1
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Celta Vigo vs Valladolid H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Valladolid?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Celta Vigo have won 3, Valladolid have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Valladolid last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 March 2025: Valladolid 0-1 Celta Vigo.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Valladolid?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 100%, Valladolid 0% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Celta Vigo and 50% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid in 50%; Valladolid in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Valladolid Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Celta Vigo and Valladolid matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 0% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Celta Vigo and Valladolid matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Celta Vigo's matches and 50% of Valladolid's.
Do Celta Vigo and Valladolid matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 50% of Valladolid's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Valladolid 3-1 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 5, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 2.88 xG and Valladolid 0.68 xG, a combined 3.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.19 / defence 1.03 against Valladolid attack 0.67 / defence 1.68, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 82% | Draw 13% | Valladolid 5%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 100%, Valladolid 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Valladolid's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 0% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Celta Vigo arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Celta Vigo conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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