Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 1 sees Osasuna travel to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Thursday 27 August 2026, 18:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Celta Vigo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Celta Vigo have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Celta Vigo have posted 5W 0D 5L at Estadio Abanca Balaídos — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Osasuna — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Celta Vigo carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Celta Vigo, 4 for Osasuna and 1 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Feb 2026, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Osasuna in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 62% versus Osasuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 44% | Osasuna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.56 xG and Osasuna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.043 / defence 1.109 | Osasuna attack 0.940 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.482 / away 1.112. Data: 39 Celta Vigo games / 39 Osasuna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Osasuna 3.57. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 60% | Osasuna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos • Kick-off: Thursday 27 Aug 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Celta Vigo 1.56 / Osasuna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.043 / def 1.109 | Osasuna attack 0.940 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.482 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Osasuna xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:30 on Thursday 27 August 2026 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Celta Vigo 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna part of?
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 46% chance of winning, Osasuna a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Celta Vigo and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Record (9 meetings): Celta Vigo 4W | Draws 1 | Osasuna 4W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Osasuna (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.04x the league average against Osasuna's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.84
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.72
1.16
Osasuna xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
15%
6.90
6%
17.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 11.9 | 6.9 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.16 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo come into this having played 39 games, going 14W 13D 12L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Celta Vigo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.10 PPG from 39 outings (11W 10D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.41 PPG, Osasuna on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Celta Vigo's home form reads 6W 5D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 0.53 points per game from 19 outings (2W 4D 13L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.13 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 14W 13D 12L in their last 39 games (1.41 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 11W 10D 18L in their last 39 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Osasuna away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.21 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Osasuna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 27 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Osasuna have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Feb 2024, when Celta Vigo won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 0D 4L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
5
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Osasuna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 27 August 2026, when Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 63%, Osasuna 37% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Celta Vigo) and 37% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 63%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 37% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 37% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Osasuna tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Celta Vigo 1-2 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 1, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.56 xG and Osasuna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against Osasuna attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 46% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 28%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 44%, Osasuna 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.41 PPG, Osasuna 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.