Celta Vigo 1-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Celta Vigo face Osasuna.

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Analysis & Preview

Osasuna travel to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo in La Liga (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 21 February 2025 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Celta Vigo stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Celta Vigo have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Osasuna — last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Osasuna away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Celta Vigo) versus 1.00 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 3 for Osasuna and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended Celta Vigo 2–3 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 63% versus Osasuna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 58% | Osasuna 44%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Celta Vigo surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Osasuna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Osasuna surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Celta Vigo recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.57 xG and Osasuna 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.171 / defence 1.012 | Osasuna attack 0.799 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.151. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.93. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 62 games and Osasuna's last 62.

Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 52% | Draw 25% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.92 | Draw 3.93 | Osasuna 4.48. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 60% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 50% (last 10 away games).

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