Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Mallorca encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Celta Vigo and Mallorca meet at Estadio Abanca Balaídos in La Liga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 22 February 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Celta Vigo's overall La Liga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Celta Vigo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Celta Vigo's home record at Estadio Abanca Balaídos: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Abanca Balaídos this season.
Mallorca have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Celta Vigo's 1.80 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Mallorca's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Celta Vigo, 3 for Mallorca and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Celta Vigo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Celta Vigo 66% and Mallorca 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 53% | Mallorca 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.86 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.094 / defence 1.038 | Mallorca attack 0.789 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.512 / away 1.136. Data: 62 Celta Vigo games / 62 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.72 | Draw 4.17 | Mallorca 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Celta Vigo 70% | Mallorca 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Feb 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 52% | xG Celta Vigo 1.86 / Mallorca 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.094 / def 1.038 | Mallorca attack 0.789 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.512 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Mallorca xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 22 February 2026 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Celta Vigo 2 - 0 Mallorca.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca part of?
Celta Vigo vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 58% chance of winning, Mallorca a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Celta Vigo and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Record (9 meetings): Celta Vigo 3W | Draws 3 | Mallorca 3W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Celta Vigo's attack rating (1.09) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.79x) against Celta Vigo's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
58%
1.71
24%
4.11
17%
5.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.79
0.93
Mallorca xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
5.75
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.35
3%
37.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 10.6 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.93 for Mallorca, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Mallorca?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 24W 17D 21L from 62 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for Celta Vigo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca, meanwhile, have gone 19W 15D 28L across 62 games — 1.16 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.44 PPG for Celta Vigo against 1.16 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 14W 8D 9L from 31 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mallorca's away record stands at 7W 5D 19L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 1.03 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 24W 17D 21L in their last 62 games (1.44 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 19W 15D 28L in their last 62 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Mallorca away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.61 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Celta Vigo have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Celta Vigo
3
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
From 10 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 4, Mallorca have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-0 Mallorca.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Mallorca?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 64%, Mallorca 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 48% (Mallorca).
On the defensive side: Mallorca in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 45% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 48% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Mallorca tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mallorca.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Celta Vigo beat Mallorca 2-0 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 25, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.86 xG and Mallorca 0.93 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Mallorca landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.09 / defence 1.04 against Mallorca attack 0.79 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 24% | Mallorca 17%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 53%, Mallorca 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Mallorca's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.44 PPG, Mallorca 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Celta Vigo win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Mallorca (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.