Celta Vigo 2-3 Levante – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Celta Vigo at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Celta Vigo vs Levante encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Levante travel to Estadio Abanca Balaídos to take on Celta Vigo. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 12 May 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Celta Vigo have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Celta Vigo at Estadio Abanca Balaídos this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Levante stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Levante's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Levante are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Celta Vigo, 0 for Levante and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with Celta Vigo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Celta Vigo in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Levante in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 63% versus Levante 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 46% | Levante 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.98 xG and Levante 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.051 / defence 1.285 | Levante attack 0.734 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.520 / away 1.150. Levante bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Celta Vigo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Celta Vigo games / 35 Levante games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 22% | Levante 20%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 1.72 | Draw 4.55 | Levante 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Celta Vigo (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Celta Vigo dominate the H2H record, yet Levante are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
Poisson rates Celta Vigo as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Levante (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: Celta Vigo 50% | Levante 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Levante | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Abanca Balaídos • Kick-off: Tuesday 12 May 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 22% | Levante 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 57% | xG Celta Vigo 1.98 / Levante 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.051 / def 1.285 | Levante attack 0.734 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.520 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.98
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Levante xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Celta Vigo vs Levante kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Levante kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 12 May 2026 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Celta Vigo 2 - 3 Levante.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Levante being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Levante part of?
Celta Vigo vs Levante is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 58% chance of winning, Levante a 20% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Celta Vigo and Levante will score (BTTS).
Will Celta Vigo vs Levante have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Record (3 meetings): Celta Vigo 2W | Draws 1 | Levante 0W.
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in?
Celta Vigo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Levante (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Levante's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Levante's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
58%
1.72
22%
4.63
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.98
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
3.06
1.08
Levante xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
14%
7.21
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
3%
35.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Levante expected to score?
The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.08 for Levante, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Levante?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Celta Vigo's recent record stands at 13W 11D 11L from 35 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Levante, meanwhile, have gone 9W 9D 17L across 35 games — 1.03 PPG, with W-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Celta Vigo on 1.43 PPG, Levante on 1.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Celta Vigo have managed 5W 5D 7L from 17 games — 1.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Levante's away record stands at 3W 4D 10L across 17 trips, a 0.76 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Celta Vigo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Levante are on 1.17 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Current Season
Levante
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Celta Vigo and Levante in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 13W 11D 11L in their last 35 games (1.43 PPG), while Levante have gone 9W 9D 17L in their last 35 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Levante away?
Celta Vigo's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.18 PPG; Levante away: 0.76 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Celta Vigo and Levante runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Levante specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
1
Draws
1
Levante
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Levante?
From 4 meetings on record, Celta Vigo have won 2, Levante have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Levante last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Celta Vigo 2-3 Levante.
Who has won more matches between Celta Vigo and Levante?
Celta Vigo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Levante are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 65%, Levante 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Celta Vigo) and 41% (Levante).
On the defensive side: Levante in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Levante away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Celta Vigo play Levante?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 65% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 41% of Levante's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Celta Vigo vs Levante usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 41% of Levante's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Levante tend to score early?
Celta Vigo have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levante in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Levante defy the odds to beat Celta Vigo 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Levante beat Celta Vigo 2-3 at Estadio Abanca Balaídos, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.98 xG and Levante 1.08 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Levante outscored their 1.08 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 1.28 against Levante attack 0.73 / defence 1.24, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 58% | Draw 22% | Levante 20%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Levante win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 46%, Levante 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Levante's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Celta Vigo 1.43 PPG, Levante 1.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Levante win broke the near-deadlock. Celta Vigo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levante (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.