Celta Vigo 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Celta Vigo at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Celta Vigo face Girona.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Celta Vigo welcome Girona to Estadio Abanca-Balaídos in La Liga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Celta Vigo have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Celta Vigo have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Celta Vigo are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Girona stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Girona have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Celta Vigo) versus 1.40 (Girona). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Celta Vigo, 2 for Girona and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.2 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2024, ended Celta Vigo 0–1 Girona — a Girona win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Celta Vigo in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Girona in-play and half-time data (last 45 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Celta Vigo 62% versus Girona 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Celta Vigo 60% | Girona 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Celta Vigo 1.61 xG and Girona 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Celta Vigo attack 1.047 / defence 1.035 | Girona attack 0.981 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.056. Data: built from Celta Vigo's last 45 games and Girona's last 45.
Result probabilities: Celta Vigo 47% | Draw 30% | Girona 23%. Fair-value odds: Celta Vigo 2.11 | Draw 3.37 | Girona 4.37. Celta Vigo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Celta Vigo at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Celta Vigo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Celta Vigo's last 10 home games and Girona's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Celta Vigo 70% (last 10 home games) | Girona 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Celta Vigo vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, matchday 8 | Venue: Estadio Abanca-Balaídos • Kick-off: Sunday 29 September 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Celta Vigo 47% | Draw 30% | Girona 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Celta Vigo 1.61 / Girona 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Celta Vigo attack 1.047 / def 1.035 | Girona attack 0.981 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Celta Vigo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Celta Vigo xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Girona xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Girona FAQs
What time does Celta Vigo vs Girona kick off?
Celta Vigo vs Girona kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 29 September 2024 at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What was the final score in Celta Vigo vs Girona?
Celta Vigo 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Celta Vigo vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos.
What competition is Celta Vigo vs Girona part of?
Celta Vigo vs Girona is a La Liga fixture (matchday 8) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Celta Vigo vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Celta Vigo a 47% chance of winning, Girona a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Celta Vigo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Celta Vigo vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Celta Vigo and Girona will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Celta Vigo vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Celta Vigo's attack at 1.05x the league average against Girona's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Girona's attack versus Celta Vigo's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Celta Vigo's last 45 games and Girona's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Celta Vigo Win
47%
2.11
30%
3.37
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Celta Vigo xG
Total xG
2.68
1.07
Girona xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
5%
21.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Celta Vigo vs Girona Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Celta Vigo vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Celta Vigo and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.07 for Girona, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Celta Vigo vs Girona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 45 outings, Celta Vigo have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 13W 11D 21L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Girona's form line: 27W 8D 10L from 45 games, 1.98 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Girona are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Celta Vigo.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Celta Vigo have posted 1.43 PPG from their last 23 home games (9W 6D 8L).
On the road, Girona have gone 11W 5D 7L from their last 23 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Celta Vigo are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 2.07 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Celta Vigo have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
Celta Vigo (Home) vs Girona (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Celta Vigo
Early Season
Girona
Early Season
❓ Celta Vigo vs Girona Form FAQs
What form are Celta Vigo and Girona in coming into this match?
Celta Vigo have gone 13W 11D 21L in their last 45 games (1.11 PPG), while Girona have gone 27W 8D 10L in their last 45 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Celta Vigo at home or Girona away?
Girona's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Celta Vigo at home: 1.43 PPG; Girona away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Celta Vigo or Girona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Celta Vigo have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Girona in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Celta Vigo's record when hosting Girona specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Celta Vigo
4
Draws
2
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Celta Vigo vs Girona H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Celta Vigo and Girona?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Celta Vigo have won 2, Girona have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Celta Vigo and Girona last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: Girona 1-2 Celta Vigo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Celta Vigo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 44% of those situations.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Celta Vigo 56%, Girona 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Celta Vigo) and 52% (Girona).
On the defensive side: Celta Vigo have failed to score in 35% of games; Girona in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Celta Vigo home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Celta Vigo vs Girona Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Celta Vigo and Girona matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Celta Vigo's games and 56% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Celta Vigo and Girona matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Celta Vigo's recent games and 52% of Girona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Celta Vigo and Girona matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of Celta Vigo's recent matches and 83% of Girona's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Celta Vigo and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Abanca-Balaídos, Regular Season - 8, as Celta Vigo and Girona drew 1-1 in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Celta Vigo 1.61 xG and Girona 1.07 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Celta Vigo attack 1.05 / defence 1.03 against Girona attack 0.98 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Celta Vigo 47% | Draw 30% | Girona 23%, with Celta Vigo to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Celta Vigo 60%, Girona 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Celta Vigo's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Girona arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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