Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cadiz take on Real Betis.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 24 as Cadiz welcome Real Betis to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 February 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all La Liga games this season, Cadiz have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Real Betis — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Real Betis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Real Betis have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Betis — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cadiz, 1 for Real Betis and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cadiz in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Real Betis in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 38% versus Real Betis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 28% | Real Betis 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.92 xG and Real Betis 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.730 / defence 1.076 | Real Betis attack 0.824 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.167. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Cadiz games / 61 Real Betis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 29% | Draw 36% | Real Betis 35%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.45 | Draw 2.78 | Real Betis 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Cadiz 50% | Real Betis 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Real Betis | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Friday 9 Feb 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 29% | Draw 36% | Real Betis 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Cadiz 0.92 / Real Betis 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.730 / def 1.076 | Real Betis attack 0.824 / def 0.950 | league avg home 1.322 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Real Betis xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Real Betis kick off?
Cadiz vs Real Betis kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 9 February 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Cadiz 0 - 2 Real Betis.
Where is Cadiz vs Real Betis being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Real Betis part of?
Cadiz vs Real Betis is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 29% chance of winning, Real Betis a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cadiz and Real Betis will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Real Betis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Betis?
Record (5 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 3 | Real Betis 1W.
What form are Cadiz and Real Betis in?
Cadiz (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Real Betis (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.73x the league average against Real Betis's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Real Betis's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
29%
3.46
36%
2.79
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.2%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Cadiz xG
Total xG
1.95
1.03
Real Betis xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
10%
9.73
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.2 | 14.7 | 7.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Real Betis expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.03 for Real Betis, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Real Betis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cadiz's recent record stands at 12W 23D 26L from 61 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Real Betis, meanwhile, have gone 25W 20D 16L across 61 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Real Betis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Betis by 0.59 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cadiz heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cadiz have managed 9W 12D 9L from 30 games — 1.30 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Real Betis's away record stands at 10W 10D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Real Betis are on 1.18 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Real Betis in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Real Betis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Real Betis in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 23D 26L in their last 61 games (0.97 PPG), while Real Betis have gone 25W 20D 16L in their last 61 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Real Betis away?
Real Betis's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.30 PPG; Real Betis away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Real Betis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Real Betis in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cadiz's record when hosting Real Betis specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
3
Draws
2
Real Betis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Real Betis?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Real Betis have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Real Betis last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2024, when Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Real Betis?
Real Betis have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Real Betis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 37%, Real Betis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Cadiz) and 43% (Real Betis).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 43% of games; Real Betis in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Real Betis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Real Betis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cadiz's recent matches and 50% of Real Betis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Real Betis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cadiz's recent games and 43% of Real Betis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cadiz and Real Betis tend to score early?
Cadiz have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Real Betis in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Betis cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cadiz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Betis beat Cadiz 0-2 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 24, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.92 xG and Real Betis 1.03 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Real Betis outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.73 / defence 1.08 against Real Betis attack 0.82 / defence 0.95, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 29% | Draw 36% | Real Betis 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Real Betis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 28%, Real Betis 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Real Betis's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Betis arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Real Betis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.