Cadiz 0-2 Real Betis – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cadiz take on Real Betis.

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Fixture Analysis

Cadiz welcome Real Betis to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga (matchday 24). Kick-off is Friday 9 February 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Cadiz have gone 0W 7D 3L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Cadiz at home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Real Betis — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

On the road, Real Betis have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Real Betis — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Cadiz have won 1, Real Betis 1, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Cadiz 1–1 Real Betis — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Cadiz in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.

Real Betis in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 38% versus Real Betis 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 28% | Real Betis 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Cadiz surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while Real Betis have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.92 xG and Real Betis 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.730 / defence 1.076 | Real Betis attack 0.824 / defence 0.950. League average goals — home 1.322 / away 1.167. Cadiz's attack rating of 0.730 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from Cadiz's last 61 games and Real Betis's last 61.

Result probabilities: Cadiz 29% | Draw 36% | Real Betis 35%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 3.46 | Draw 2.79 | Real Betis 2.84. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Under 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Cadiz's last 10 home games and Real Betis's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Cadiz 50% (last 10 home games) | Real Betis 60% (last 10 away games).

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