Cadiz 0-0 Athletic Club – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Athletic Club (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cadiz face Athletic Club.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 22 as Cadiz welcome Athletic Club to Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 28 January 2024 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cadiz — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cadiz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cadiz's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Cadiz are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 La Liga matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Athletic Club's 2.30 PPG return is 1.80 points per game ahead of Cadiz's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 5 encounters between these sides heavily favour Athletic Club, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Cadiz.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 0–3 with Athletic Club winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Athletic Club have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cadiz trading profile (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Athletic Club trading profile (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cadiz 39% versus Athletic Club 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cadiz 29% | Athletic Club 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 0.84 xG and Athletic Club 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.758 / defence 1.150 | Athletic Club attack 0.912 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.198. Cadiz's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 59 Cadiz games / 59 Athletic Club games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 45%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Athletic Club 2.22. Athletic Club hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Athletic Club as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Athletic Club offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Cadiz 50% | Athletic Club 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cadiz vs Athletic Club | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Jan 2024, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cadiz 0.84 / Athletic Club 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Cadiz attack 0.758 / def 1.150 | Athletic Club attack 0.912 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Cadiz xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Athletic Club xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cadiz vs Athletic Club kick off?
Cadiz vs Athletic Club kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 28 January 2024 at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What was the final score in Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Cadiz 0 - 0 Athletic Club.
Where is Cadiz vs Athletic Club being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla.
What competition is Cadiz vs Athletic Club part of?
Cadiz vs Athletic Club is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our statistical model gives Cadiz a 24% chance of winning, Athletic Club a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cadiz and Athletic Club will score (BTTS).
Will Cadiz vs Athletic Club have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
Record (5 meetings): Cadiz 1W | Draws 0 | Athletic Club 4W.
What form are Cadiz and Athletic Club in?
Cadiz (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Athletic Club (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cadiz's attack at 0.76x the league average against Athletic Club's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Athletic Club's attack versus Cadiz's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
24%
4.19
31%
3.22
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Cadiz xG
Total xG
2.10
1.26
Athletic Club xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.40
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
7%
14.71
19%
5.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 15.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.0 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Cadiz and Athletic Club expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Cadiz and 1.26 for Athletic Club, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Cadiz vs Athletic Club?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 59 outings, Cadiz have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 12W 21D 26L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cadiz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Athletic Club's form line: 26W 14D 19L from 59 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-L. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Athletic Club are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cadiz.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cadiz have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (9W 11D 9L).
On the road, Athletic Club have gone 10W 9D 10L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cadiz are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Athletic Club are on 1.44 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 59 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cadiz
Blended
Athletic Club
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cadiz and Athletic Club in coming into this match?
Cadiz have gone 12W 21D 26L in their last 59 games (0.97 PPG), while Athletic Club have gone 26W 14D 19L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cadiz at home or Athletic Club away?
Athletic Club's away record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cadiz at home: 1.31 PPG; Athletic Club away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Cadiz or Athletic Club been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cadiz have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Athletic Club in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Aug 2022, when Athletic Club won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cadiz's record when hosting Athletic Club specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cadiz
1
Draws
4
Athletic Club
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
From 6 meetings on record, Cadiz have won 1, Athletic Club have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cadiz and Athletic Club last play each other?
They last met on 28 January 2024, when Cadiz 0-0 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Cadiz and Athletic Club?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cadiz see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cadiz 38%, Athletic Club 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Cadiz) and 45% (Athletic Club).
On the defensive side: Cadiz keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Cadiz have failed to score in 41% of games; Athletic Club in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cadiz home games / Athletic Club away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cadiz play Athletic Club?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cadiz's recent matches and 52% of Athletic Club's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cadiz vs Athletic Club usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Cadiz's recent games and 45% of Athletic Club's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Cadiz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla, Regular Season - 22, as Cadiz and Athletic Club drew 0-0 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cadiz 0.84 xG and Athletic Club 1.26 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cadiz fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Athletic Club landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cadiz attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Athletic Club attack 0.91 / defence 0.81, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cadiz 24% | Draw 31% | Athletic Club 45%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cadiz 29%, Athletic Club 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cadiz's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Athletic Club's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Athletic Club arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cadiz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Athletic Club (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.