Cadiz 1-0 Alaves – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cadiz at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cadiz vs Alaves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Cadiz and Alaves meet at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla in La Liga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Monday 14 August 2023 at 18:30 UTC.

Current Form

Cadiz's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cadiz haven't played a La Liga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.

Cadiz's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Cadiz are significantly better at Estadio Nuevo Mirandilla than their overall form suggests.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cadiz, 1 for Alaves and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Cadiz winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cadiz 1.48 xG and Alaves 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cadiz attack 0.938 / defence 0.947 | Alaves attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.103. Data: 38 Cadiz games / 0 Alaves games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.

Result probabilities: Cadiz 50% | Draw 28% | Alaves 22%. Fair-value odds: Cadiz 2.00 | Draw 3.57 | Alaves 4.55. Cadiz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cadiz as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cadiz if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.

The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights