Athletic Club 3-0 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Athletic Club at 66%, yet other data sources diverge — this Athletic Club vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Athletic Club host Valladolid at San Mamés Barria in La Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 8 November 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Athletic Club stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Athletic Club, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Athletic Club at San Mamés Barria this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at San Mamés Barria. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Athletic Club are significantly better at San Mamés Barria than their overall form suggests.
Valladolid — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 4L across 6 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 0.83 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Athletic Club at 1.40 PPG versus Valladolid's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Athletic Club in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Valladolid in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 38% versus Valladolid 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 54% | Valladolid 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.85 xG and Valladolid 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.015 / defence 0.765 | Valladolid attack 0.761 / defence 1.318. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.146. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.318 — this is suppressing Athletic Club's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Athletic Club's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Athletic Club games / 13 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 66% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 13%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.52 | Draw 4.55 | Valladolid 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (66%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 66% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Athletic Club 10% | Valladolid 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Tuesday 8 Nov 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 66% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 41% | xG Athletic Club 1.85 / Valladolid 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.015 / def 0.765 | Valladolid attack 0.761 / def 1.318 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.146 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.85
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Valladolid xG
41%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Athletic Club vs Valladolid kick off?
Athletic Club vs Valladolid kicked off at 19:00 on Tuesday 8 November 2022 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Athletic Club 3 - 0 Valladolid.
Where is Athletic Club vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Valladolid part of?
Athletic Club vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 66% chance of winning, Valladolid a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Athletic Club and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Athletic Club vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valladolid?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Athletic Club and Valladolid in?
Athletic Club (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Valladolid (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Athletic Club's attack rating (1.01) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 1.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Valladolid's attack versus Athletic Club's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
66%
1.53
22%
4.57
13%
7.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.85
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.52
0.67
Valladolid xG
1.53
66%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
7.92
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
16%
6.35
Win to Nil
34%
2.97
2%
50.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 10.0 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.85 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.67 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Athletic Club's recent record stands at 6W 3D 4L from 13 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Athletic Club is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 6L across 13 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Athletic Club on 1.62 PPG, Valladolid on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Athletic Club have managed 4W 0D 2L from 6 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valladolid's away record stands at 1W 1D 4L across 6 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Athletic Club are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Blended
Valladolid
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Athletic Club and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 6W 3D 4L in their last 13 games (1.62 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Valladolid away?
Athletic Club's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 2.00 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Valladolid in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Athletic Club and Valladolid runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Feb 2025, when Athletic Club won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Athletic Club's record when hosting Valladolid specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Athletic Club
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Athletic Club have won 3, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Athletic Club 7-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Valladolid?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Athletic Club see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Athletic Club 17% BTTS, Valladolid 50%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Athletic Club) and 50% (Valladolid).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Athletic Club have failed to score in 33% of games; Valladolid in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Athletic Club play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 50% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Athletic Club vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Athletic Club's recent games and 50% of Valladolid's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Valladolid tend to score early?
Athletic Club have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Athletic Club run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Valladolid.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Athletic Club beat Valladolid 3-0 at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 14, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.85 xG and Valladolid 0.67 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Athletic Club beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.01 / defence 0.77 against Valladolid attack 0.76 / defence 1.32, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 66% | Draw 22% | Valladolid 13%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 54%, Valladolid 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Valladolid's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.62 PPG, Valladolid 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Athletic Club win broke the near-deadlock. Athletic Club (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.