Athletic Club 2-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Athletic Club at 59% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Athletic Club vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
San Mamés Barria plays host to Athletic Club versus Osasuna in La Liga (matchday 35). Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Athletic Club have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Athletic Club have gone 7W 3D 0L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Athletic Club are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Osasuna's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Osasuna have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Athletic Club's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, Athletic Club edge it 2 wins to 1, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Athletic Club 2–0 Osasuna — a Athletic Club win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Athletic Club goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Athletic Club 40% versus Osasuna 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Athletic Club 43% | Osasuna 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Athletic Club 1.76 xG and Osasuna 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Athletic Club attack 1.122 / defence 0.843 | Osasuna attack 0.893 / defence 1.101. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.116. Data: built from Athletic Club's last 72 games and Osasuna's last 72.
Result probabilities: Athletic Club 59% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18%. Fair-value odds: Athletic Club 1.69 | Draw 4.31 | Osasuna 5.69. The model has a clear lean to Athletic Club (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Athletic Club are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Athletic Club 40% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Athletic Club vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, matchday 35 | Venue: San Mamés Barria • Kick-off: Saturday 11 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Athletic Club 59% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Athletic Club 1.76 / Osasuna 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Athletic Club attack 1.122 / def 0.843 | Osasuna attack 0.893 / def 1.101 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Athletic Club (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Athletic Club xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Osasuna xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna FAQs
What time does Athletic Club vs Osasuna kick off?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Saturday 11 May 2024 at San Mamés Barria.
What was the final score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Athletic Club 2 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Athletic Club vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at San Mamés Barria.
What competition is Athletic Club vs Osasuna part of?
Athletic Club vs Osasuna is a La Liga fixture (matchday 35) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Athletic Club a 59% chance of winning, Osasuna a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Athletic Club the favourite.
Will both teams score in Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Athletic Club and Osasuna will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Athletic Club vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Athletic Club's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.89x) against Athletic Club's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Athletic Club's last 72 games and Osasuna's last 72 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Athletic Club Win
59%
1.69
23%
4.31
18%
5.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Athletic Club xG
Total xG
2.60
0.84
Osasuna xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.31
23%
Draw
5.69
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
3%
33.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Athletic Club and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Athletic Club and 0.84 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Athletic Club vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Athletic Club have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 31W 19D 22L record — L-D-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Osasuna's form line: 26W 14D 32L from 72 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for Athletic Club against 1.28 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Athletic Club have posted 1.81 PPG from their last 36 home games (19W 8D 9L).
On the road, Osasuna have gone 9W 10D 17L from their last 36 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Athletic Club come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Athletic Club are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.03 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Athletic Club
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
Athletic Club (Home) vs Osasuna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Athletic Club
Current Season
Osasuna
Current Season
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna Form FAQs
What form are Athletic Club and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Athletic Club have gone 31W 19D 22L in their last 72 games (1.56 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 26W 14D 32L in their last 72 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Athletic Club at home or Osasuna away?
Athletic Club's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Athletic Club at home: 1.81 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Athletic Club or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Athletic Club have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Osasuna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Athletic Club have gone 2W 3D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Athletic Club
5
Draws
1
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Athletic Club have won 4, Osasuna have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Athletic Club and Osasuna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Osasuna 1-1 Athletic Club.
Who has won more matches between Athletic Club and Osasuna?
Athletic Club have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Athletic Club are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Athletic Club 33%, Osasuna 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Athletic Club) and 39% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Athletic Club keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Athletic Club have failed to score in 33% of games; Osasuna in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Athletic Club home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Athletic Club vs Osasuna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Athletic Club and Osasuna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 47% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Athletic Club and Osasuna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Athletic Club's recent games and 39% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Athletic Club and Osasuna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Athletic Club's recent matches and 72% of Osasuna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Athletic Club and Osasuna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at San Mamés Barria, Regular Season - 35, as Athletic Club and Osasuna drew 2-2 in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Athletic Club 1.76 xG and Osasuna 0.84 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Athletic Club attack 1.12 / defence 0.84 against Osasuna attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Athletic Club 59% | Draw 23% | Osasuna 18%, with Athletic Club to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Athletic Club 43%, Osasuna 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Athletic Club's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Osasuna's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Athletic Club 1.56 PPG, Osasuna 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Athletic Club (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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