Almeria 2-1 Sevilla – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sevilla at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Sevilla encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 3 as Almeria welcome Sevilla to Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Almeria — All Games: 0W 1D 1L from 2 La Liga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all La Liga games this season, Sevilla have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sevilla have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Sevilla — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 1.03 xG and Sevilla 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 0.873 / defence 1.166 | Sevilla attack 0.958 / defence 1.022. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.193. Data: 2 Almeria games / 40 Sevilla games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Almeria 29% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 43%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Sevilla 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Sevilla | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 29% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Almeria 1.03 / Sevilla 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 0.873 / def 1.166 | Sevilla attack 0.958 / def 1.022 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Sevilla xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Sevilla kick off?
Almeria vs Sevilla kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Sevilla?
Almeria 2 - 1 Sevilla.
Where is Almeria vs Sevilla being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Sevilla part of?
Almeria vs Sevilla is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Sevilla?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 29% chance of winning, Sevilla a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Sevilla?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Almeria and Sevilla will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Sevilla have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Sevilla?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Almeria and Sevilla in?
Almeria (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D. Sevilla (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Almeria's attack at 0.87x the league average against Sevilla's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sevilla's attack versus Almeria's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
29%
3.47
28%
3.62
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.36
1.33
Sevilla xG
3.47
29%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
16%
6.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 12.5 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Sevilla?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Almeria and Sevilla expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Almeria and 1.33 for Sevilla, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Sevilla?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Almeria have picked up 0.50 PPG on a 0W 1D 1L record — L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sevilla's form line: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-D. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Almeria on 0.50 PPG, Sevilla on 0.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Almeria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Sevilla are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Sevilla in 100%.
Last 2 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Early Season
Sevilla
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Sevilla in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 games (0.50 PPG), while Sevilla have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Almeria and Sevilla runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2023, when Sevilla won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Almeria's record when hosting Sevilla specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
1
Draws
2
Sevilla
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Sevilla?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Sevilla have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Sevilla last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when Almeria 2-2 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Sevilla?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Sevilla away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Sevilla?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Almeria's games and 100% of Sevilla's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Almeria vs Sevilla usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Almeria's recent games and 50% of Sevilla's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Almeria and Sevilla tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sevilla in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almeria defy the odds to beat Sevilla 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Sevilla 2-1 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 1.03 xG and Sevilla 1.33 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Almeria beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 0.87 / defence 1.17 against Sevilla attack 0.96 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 29% | Draw 28% | Sevilla 43%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Almeria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 50%, Sevilla 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Almeria 0.50 PPG, Sevilla 0.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almeria win broke the near-deadlock. Almeria scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.