Almeria 1-0 Barcelona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Barcelona at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Almeria vs Barcelona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos plays host to Almeria versus Barcelona in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 26 February 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Almeria's overall La Liga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Almeria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Almeria have posted 6W 1D 3L at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Almeria are significantly better at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos than their overall form suggests.
Barcelona have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.30. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Barcelona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Barcelona's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in La Liga this season (2.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Barcelona are the stronger side — 1.90 PPG clear of the hosts (2.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Almeria 0W, Barcelona 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2022, ended 0–2 with Barcelona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Almeria half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Barcelona half-time and goal-timing data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 77% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Almeria 64% versus Barcelona 23%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Almeria 54% | Barcelona 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Almeria 0.96 xG and Barcelona 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Almeria attack 1.159 / defence 1.286 | Barcelona attack 1.260 / defence 0.611. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 0.985. Barcelona's defence strength of 0.611 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Barcelona have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.60 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Almeria games / 60 Barcelona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Almeria 23% | Draw 25% | Barcelona 52%. Fair-value odds: Almeria 4.35 | Draw 4.00 | Barcelona 1.92. Barcelona hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Barcelona at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Barcelona if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Almeria 70% | Barcelona 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Almeria vs Barcelona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Almeria 23% | Draw 25% | Barcelona 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Almeria 0.96 / Barcelona 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Almeria attack 1.159 / def 1.286 | Barcelona attack 1.260 / def 0.611 | league avg home 1.357 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Barcelona (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Almeria xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Barcelona xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Almeria vs Barcelona kick off?
Almeria vs Barcelona kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What was the final score in Almeria vs Barcelona?
Almeria 1 - 0 Barcelona.
Where is Almeria vs Barcelona being played?
The match is being played at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos.
What competition is Almeria vs Barcelona part of?
Almeria vs Barcelona is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Almeria vs Barcelona?
Our statistical model gives Almeria a 23% chance of winning, Barcelona a 52% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Barcelona the favourite.
Will both teams score in Almeria vs Barcelona?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Almeria and Barcelona will score (BTTS).
Will Almeria vs Barcelona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Barcelona?
Record (1 meetings): Almeria 0W | Draws 0 | Barcelona 1W.
What form are Almeria and Barcelona in?
Almeria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Barcelona (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Almeria's attack at 1.16x the league average against Barcelona's defence at 0.61x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Barcelona's attack (1.26x) against Almeria's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (10.8%), 0-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Barcelona Win
23%
4.40
25%
3.99
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Almeria xG
Total xG
2.56
1.60
Barcelona xG
4.40
23%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
5%
21.69
20%
5.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Almeria vs Barcelona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Almeria and Barcelona expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Almeria and 1.60 for Barcelona, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Almeria vs Barcelona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 22 outings, Almeria have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 6W 4D 12L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Almeria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Barcelona's form line: 19W 2D 1L from 22 games, 2.68 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Barcelona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Barcelona are the form team by 1.68 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Almeria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Almeria have posted 1.73 PPG from 11 outings (6W 1D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Almeria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Barcelona have gone 10W 0D 1L from 11 away games — 2.73 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Barcelona come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Almeria are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Barcelona are on 2.05 scored and 0.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Almeria have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Barcelona in 23%.
Defensively: Barcelona in 77% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Almeria
Blended
Barcelona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Almeria and Barcelona in coming into this match?
Almeria have gone 6W 4D 12L in their last 22 games (1.00 PPG), while Barcelona have gone 19W 2D 1L in their last 22 (2.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Almeria at home or Barcelona away?
Barcelona's away record (2.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Almeria at home: 1.73 PPG; Barcelona away: 2.73 PPG.
Have Almeria or Barcelona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Almeria have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Barcelona in 77%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Barcelona go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Almeria have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Barcelona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Almeria
0
Draws
3
Barcelona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Almeria and Barcelona?
From 4 meetings on record, Almeria have won 1, Barcelona have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Almeria and Barcelona last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2024, when Almeria 0-2 Barcelona.
Who has won more matches between Almeria and Barcelona?
Barcelona have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Barcelona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Almeria 73%, Barcelona 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Almeria) and 54% (Barcelona). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Barcelona in 64%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Almeria home games / Barcelona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Almeria play Barcelona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 73% of Almeria's recent matches and 36% of Barcelona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Almeria vs Barcelona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Almeria's matches and 54% of Barcelona's.
Do Almeria and Barcelona tend to score early?
Almeria have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Barcelona in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Almeria defy the odds to beat Barcelona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almeria beat Barcelona 1-0 at Power Horse Stadium – Estadio de los Juegos Mediterráneos, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Almeria 0.96 xG and Barcelona 1.60 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Barcelona landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Almeria attack 1.16 / defence 1.29 against Barcelona attack 1.26 / defence 0.61, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Almeria 23% | Draw 25% | Barcelona 52%, with Barcelona to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Almeria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Almeria 54%, Barcelona 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Almeria's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Barcelona's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 77% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Barcelona arrived the stronger side — 2.68 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Almeria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Almeria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Barcelona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.