Alaves 0-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Alaves (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Alaves face Valencia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valencia make the trip to Estadio Mendizorrotza to face Alaves in La Liga (matchday 9). The match kicks off on Monday 20 October 2025 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Alaves have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Alaves's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Valencia's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
On the road, Valencia have gone 2W 4D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Alaves's favour (1.50 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
The head-to-head record in our data favours Alaves, who have won 4 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Valencia — Valencia have 1 win, with 1 draw.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 May 2025, ended Alaves 1–0 Valencia — a Alaves win.
The head-to-head data gives Alaves an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valencia — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 50% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Alaves 37% | Valencia 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Alaves surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Valencia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 39% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 1.97 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 1.036 / defence 0.978 | Valencia attack 0.891 / defence 1.362. League average goals — home 1.392 / away 1.166. Valencia's defence rating of 1.362 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Alaves's projected output up. Data: built from Alaves's last 46 games and Valencia's last 46.
Result probabilities: Alaves 59% | Draw 22% | Valencia 19%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 1.69 | Draw 4.48 | Valencia 5.37. The model has a clear lean to Alaves (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alaves are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Alaves 50% (last 10 home games) | Valencia 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, matchday 9 | Venue: Estadio Mendizorrotza • Kick-off: Monday 20 October 2025 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 59% | Draw 22% | Valencia 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% (Under 43%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Alaves 1.97 / Valencia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 1.036 / def 0.978 | Valencia attack 0.891 / def 1.362 | league avg home 1.392 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: Alaves (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Valencia xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Alaves vs Valencia FAQs
What time does Alaves vs Valencia kick off?
Alaves vs Valencia kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Monday 20 October 2025 at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Alaves 0 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Alaves vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Mendizorrotza.
What competition is Alaves vs Valencia part of?
Alaves vs Valencia is a La Liga fixture (matchday 9) (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 59% chance of winning, Valencia a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Alaves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Alaves and Valencia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Alaves vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 1.04x the league average against Valencia's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.97 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.89x) against Alaves's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from Alaves's last 46 games and Valencia's last 46 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alaves Win
59%
1.69
22%
4.48
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Alaves xG
Total xG
2.98
1.02
Valencia xG
1.69
59%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
14%
7.13
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
3%
38.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Alaves vs Valencia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Alaves and 1.02 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Valencia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 14D 19L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.17 PPG from 46 outings (13W 15D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Alaves against 1.17 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Alaves's home form reads 8W 7D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.70 points per game from their last 23 away games (2W 10D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valencia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.17 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Blended
Valencia
Blended
Alaves (Home) vs Valencia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Alaves
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Alaves vs Valencia Form FAQs
What form are Alaves and Valencia in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 13W 14D 19L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Valencia have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Valencia away?
Alaves's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.35 PPG; Valencia away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in La Liga. The most recent was as recently as 15 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Valencia have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Valencia won Valencia 3-0 Alaves on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Alaves
2
Draws
3
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Alaves vs Valencia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Valencia?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Alaves have won 4, Valencia have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Valencia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 15 September 2026: Alaves 0-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Valencia?
Alaves have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alaves 44%, Valencia 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Alaves) and 48% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Alaves have failed to score in 35% of games; Valencia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Alaves vs Valencia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Alaves and Valencia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Alaves's recent matches and 65% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Alaves and Valencia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Alaves's recent games and 48% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Valencia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Alaves's recent matches and 83% of Valencia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alaves's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alaves and Valencia finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 1.97 xG and Valencia 1.02 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alaves fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Valencia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 1.04 / defence 0.98 against Valencia attack 0.89 / defence 1.36, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 59% | Draw 22% | Valencia 19%, with Alaves to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 37%, Valencia 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Valencia's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.15 PPG, Valencia 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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