Alaves 0-2 Rayo Vallecano – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Alaves take on Rayo Vallecano.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rayo Vallecano make the trip to Estadio de Mendizorroza to face Alaves in La Liga, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Alaves (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Alaves at Estadio de Mendizorroza this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Rayo Vallecano have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rayo Vallecano away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rayo Vallecano are 0.50 PPG clear of Alaves in recent La Liga fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Alaves, 3 for Rayo Vallecano and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.4 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Rayo Vallecano winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Alaves — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Rayo Vallecano — key trading statistics (66 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alaves 46% versus Rayo Vallecano 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alaves 38% | Rayo Vallecano 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alaves 0.74 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alaves attack 0.688 / defence 0.901 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.795 / defence 0.756. League average goals — home 1.432 / away 1.158. Alaves's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rayo Vallecano's defence strength of 0.756 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 66 Alaves games / 66 Rayo Vallecano games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 36% | Rayo Vallecano 35%. Fair-value odds: Alaves 3.33 | Draw 2.78 | Rayo Vallecano 2.86. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Alaves's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.57 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 30%. Form rates corroborate: Alaves 40% | Rayo Vallecano 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Estadio de Mendizorroza • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alaves 30% | Draw 36% | Rayo Vallecano 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Alaves 0.74 / Rayo Vallecano 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Alaves attack 0.688 / def 0.901 | Rayo Vallecano attack 0.795 / def 0.756 | league avg home 1.432 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Alaves xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Rayo Vallecano xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kick off?
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What was the final score in Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Alaves 0 - 2 Rayo Vallecano.
Where is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mendizorroza.
What competition is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano part of?
Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our statistical model gives Alaves a 30% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 35% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Alaves and Rayo Vallecano will score (BTTS).
Will Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
Record (5 meetings): Alaves 2W | Draws 0 | Rayo Vallecano 3W.
What form are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano in?
Alaves (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Rayo Vallecano (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Alaves's attack at 0.69x the league average against Rayo Vallecano's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rayo Vallecano's attack (0.80x) against Alaves's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.36
36%
2.81
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Alaves xG
Total xG
1.57
0.83
Rayo Vallecano xG
3.36
30%
Home win
2.81
36%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.38
70%
BTTS No
1.42
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
16%
6.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.7 | 17.2 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Alaves and 0.83 for Rayo Vallecano, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alaves's recent record stands at 18W 19D 29L from 66 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with D-L-D-W-D in the last five.
Rayo Vallecano, meanwhile, have gone 17W 24D 25L across 66 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Alaves against 1.14 for Rayo Vallecano. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alaves have managed 13W 8D 11L from 32 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rayo Vallecano's away record stands at 7W 11D 14L across 32 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Alaves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alaves are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Rayo Vallecano are on 0.91 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 66 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alaves
Current Season
Rayo Vallecano
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alaves and Rayo Vallecano in coming into this match?
Alaves have gone 18W 19D 29L in their last 66 games (1.11 PPG), while Rayo Vallecano have gone 17W 24D 25L in their last 66 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alaves at home or Rayo Vallecano away?
Alaves's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alaves at home: 1.47 PPG; Rayo Vallecano away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 20 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Alaves have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Rayo Vallecano — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Alaves
1
Draws
6
Rayo Vallecano
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
From 9 meetings on record, Alaves have won 2, Rayo Vallecano have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alaves and Rayo Vallecano last play each other?
They last met on 20 August 2026, when Rayo Vallecano 1-1 Alaves.
Who has won more matches between Alaves and Rayo Vallecano?
Rayo Vallecano have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alaves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Rayo Vallecano see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 38% (Alaves) and 31% (Rayo Vallecano) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Alaves and 34% for Rayo Vallecano.
On the defensive side: Alaves keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Rayo Vallecano in 38%; Alaves have failed to score in 31% of games; Rayo Vallecano in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alaves home games / Rayo Vallecano away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alaves play Rayo Vallecano?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Alaves's recent matches and 31% of Rayo Vallecano's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alaves vs Rayo Vallecano usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Alaves's recent games and 34% of Rayo Vallecano's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alaves and Rayo Vallecano tend to score early?
Alaves have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Rayo Vallecano in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rayo Vallecano cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Alaves.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rayo Vallecano beat Alaves 0-2 at Estadio de Mendizorroza, Regular Season - 29, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alaves 0.74 xG and Rayo Vallecano 0.83 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Rayo Vallecano outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alaves attack 0.69 / defence 0.90 against Rayo Vallecano attack 0.80 / defence 0.76, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alaves 30% | Draw 36% | Rayo Vallecano 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Rayo Vallecano win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alaves 38%, Rayo Vallecano 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alaves's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rayo Vallecano's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Alaves 1.11 PPG, Rayo Vallecano 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rayo Vallecano win broke the near-deadlock. Alaves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rayo Vallecano (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.