Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-2 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Seongnam FC make the trip to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium to face Ulsan Hyundai FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 June 2021 at 08:00 UTC.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W, Seongnam FC 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2021, ended 1–0 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 xG and Seongnam FC 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.170 / defence 0.815 | Seongnam FC attack 0.753 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 0.959 / away 1.240. Data: 18 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 16 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Draw 34% | Seongnam FC 20%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Seongnam FC 5.00. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Jun 2021, 08:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Draw 34% | Seongnam FC 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 / Seongnam FC 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.170 / def 0.815 | Seongnam FC attack 0.753 / def 1.143 | league avg home 0.959 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Seongnam FC xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 08:00 on Sunday 20 June 2021 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 2 - 2 Seongnam FC.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 47% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 20% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC?
Record (1 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack rating (1.17) and Seongnam FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Seongnam FC's attack (0.75x) against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 18/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
47%
2.15
34%
2.96
20%
5.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.04
0.76
Seongnam FC xG
2.15
47%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
5.06
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
28%
3.60
Win to Nil
22%
4.60
5%
18.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 9.9 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0.76 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Seongnam FC won 3-0 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Seongnam FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
2
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2022, when Seongnam FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 14, as Ulsan Hyundai FC and Seongnam FC drew 2-2 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.28 xG and Seongnam FC 0.76 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Seongnam FC outscored their 0.76 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.17 / defence 0.81 against Seongnam FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.14, drawn from 18/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% | Draw 34% | Seongnam FC 20%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.