Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 March 2024 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 6W 2D 2L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.40 (Pohang Steelers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Ulsan Hyundai FC, 0 for Pohang Steelers and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 3–2 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Pohang Steelers 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Pohang Steelers 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.25 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.020 / defence 0.985 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.977 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.288 / away 1.127. Data: 33 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 33 Pohang Steelers games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.50 | Draw 3.45 | Pohang Steelers 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% | Pohang Steelers 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Mar 2024, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.25 / Pohang Steelers 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.020 / def 0.985 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.977 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.288 / away 1.127 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Pohang Steelers xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 05:00 on Friday 1 March 2024 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 1 - 0 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 40% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Record (1 meetings): Ulsan Hyundai FC 1W | Draws 0 | Pohang Steelers 0W.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.02x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
40%
2.53
29%
3.44
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.08
Pohang Steelers xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
13%
7.48
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 10.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.08 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 45W 17D 14L from 76 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 32W 28D 16L across 76 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-D-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 2.00 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 25W 8D 5L from 38 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 10W 17D 11L across 38 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.38 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 45W 17D 14L in their last 76 games (2.00 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 32W 28D 16L in their last 76 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.18 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 63%, Pohang Steelers 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 40% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 60% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 40% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Pohang Steelers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 1-0 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.25 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.08 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.98 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% | Draw 29% | Pohang Steelers 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Pohang Steelers 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.