Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-2 Pohang Steelers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Championship Round - 3 as Ulsan Hyundai FC welcome Pohang Steelers to Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 12 November 2023 at 07:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ulsan Hyundai FC have posted 5W 3D 2L at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Ulsan Hyundai FC are significantly better at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Pohang Steelers have recorded 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Pohang Steelers's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Ulsan Hyundai FC) versus 1.50 (Pohang Steelers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Ulsan Hyundai FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pohang Steelers in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Pohang Steelers in-play tendencies (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% versus Pohang Steelers 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55% | Pohang Steelers 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.079 / defence 0.968 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.931 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: 66 Ulsan Hyundai FC games / 66 Pohang Steelers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 31%. Fair-value odds: Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | Pohang Steelers 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% | Pohang Steelers 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Nov 2023, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 / Pohang Steelers 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.079 / def 0.968 | Pohang Steelers attack 0.931 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Pohang Steelers xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kick off?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC 3 - 2 Pohang Steelers.
Where is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers being played?
The match is being played at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium.
What competition is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers part of?
Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our statistical model gives Ulsan Hyundai FC a 39% chance of winning, Pohang Steelers a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers will score (BTTS).
Will Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in?
Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Pohang Steelers (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Pohang Steelers's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Pohang Steelers's attack versus Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
39%
2.54
30%
3.32
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
Total xG
2.21
1.02
Pohang Steelers xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
9%
10.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 11.1 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.3 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1.02 for Pohang Steelers, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent record stands at 43W 17D 13L from 73 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-W in the last five.
Pohang Steelers, meanwhile, have gone 31W 27D 15L across 73 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ulsan Hyundai FC on 2.00 PPG, Pohang Steelers on 1.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ulsan Hyundai FC have managed 23W 8D 5L from 36 games — 2.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pohang Steelers's away record stands at 10W 16D 10L across 36 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ulsan Hyundai FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ulsan Hyundai FC are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Pohang Steelers are on 1.40 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers in 60%.
Last 73 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers in coming into this match?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 17D 13L in their last 73 games (2.00 PPG), while Pohang Steelers have gone 31W 27D 15L in their last 73 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home or Pohang Steelers away?
Ulsan Hyundai FC's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ulsan Hyundai FC at home: 2.14 PPG; Pohang Steelers away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Ulsan Hyundai FC or Pohang Steelers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Pohang Steelers in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ulsan Hyundai FC's record when hosting Pohang Steelers specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
2
Draws
3
Pohang Steelers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
From 10 meetings on record, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, Pohang Steelers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Pohang Steelers 0-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Pohang Steelers see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ulsan Hyundai FC 64%, Pohang Steelers 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Ulsan Hyundai FC) and 39% (Pohang Steelers).
On the defensive side: Ulsan Hyundai FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ulsan Hyundai FC home games / Pohang Steelers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ulsan Hyundai FC play Pohang Steelers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's games and 61% of Pohang Steelers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ulsan Hyundai FC vs Pohang Steelers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's recent games and 39% of Pohang Steelers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ulsan Hyundai FC and Pohang Steelers tend to score early?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Pohang Steelers in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Pohang Steelers 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Pohang Steelers 3-2 at Ulsan Munsu Football Stadium, Championship Round - 3, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.20 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.02 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ulsan Hyundai FC beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Pohang Steelers attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ulsan Hyundai FC 39% | Draw 30% | Pohang Steelers 31%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ulsan Hyundai FC 55%, Pohang Steelers 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.00 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.